Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:40:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CF 0xcfdb…7a75 sports 1178 markets active 2h ago coverage 326d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ Covers last 325d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,511 (-6%) realized −$4,511 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate63%746W / 431L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 326d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$645
crypto 22% −$416
other 12% −$378
politics 1% −$68
world 1% −$171
finance 0% +$27
tech 0% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -12.9% -21.2% 60% 60% -23.2%
≤30d 40 -44.2% -49.6% 38% 38% -42.7%
≤90d 40 -44.2% -49.6% 38% 38% -42.7%
all 1177 -2.1% -11.5% 63% 59% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 59% -11.6%
10% -19.9% 50% -20.0%
15% -27.7% 33% -27.8%
20% -34.8% 18% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$42 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

326d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$4,511
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses746 / 431
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1177 / 1178
History coverage326d ⚠
Avg bet$63
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1177 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $68 $67 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $40 +$13 +32%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $102 −$102 -100%
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Ognjen Milic Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Martin Krumich Jun 25 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $161 +$33 +20%
ITF Kamen: Louis Wessels vs Leonid Sheyngezikht Jun 24 $5 +$2 +34%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $201 −$201 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 +$9 +17%
Plovdiv: Eero Vasa vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 22 $50 +$20 +40%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$23 +46%
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech Jun 22 $10 +$4 +38%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gianluca Cadenasso vs Federico Cina Jun 22 $10 +$4 +40%
Mallorca Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 22 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$13 +26%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $251 +$131 +52%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $201 +$24 +12%
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt Jun 20 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$28 -95%
Will ES Troyes AC win on 2026-02-16? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Rio Open: Jaime Faria vs Sebastian Baez Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Gr Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
T20 World Cup: Nepal vs Scotland (Game 1) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $73 −$71 -96%
Boston College Eagles vs. Florida State Seminoles Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $109 −$101 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $207 −$207 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs WHITEBIRD (BO3) - CCT Europe S Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Arizona State Sun Devils Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Rio Open: Dusan Lajovic vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $40 −$5 -12%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs NIP (BO3) - Roman Imperium Cup Group D Jun 14 $4 +$2 +43%
LoL: Bushido Wildcats vs SU Esports (BO5) - TCL Playoffs Feb 21 $20 +$9 +43%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 21 $20 +$13 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Feb 19 $73 $0 -0%
New Delhi: Oliver Crawford vs Ilya Ivashka Feb 19 $10 −$1 -9%
Celtics vs. Warriors Feb 19 $30 +$2 +8%
LoL: BK ROG Esports vs Galions (BO1) - LFL Invitational Super Group Feb 19 $20 +$12 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Feb 18 $130 +$34 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Feb 18 $50 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Feb 18 $30 −$29 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Feb 18 $261 −$27 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $68 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 75¢ $40 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 31h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 31h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 34h
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Martin Krumich BUY Felix Balshaw 66¢ $51 45h
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Ognjen Milic BUY Ognjen Milic 39¢ $51 2d
ITF Kamen: Louis Wessels vs Leonid Sheyngezikht BUY Louis Wessels 74¢ $5 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $60 3d
Plovdiv: Eero Vasa vs Manoj Dhamne Manas BUY Manoj Dhamne Manas 66¢ $30 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 4d
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida 71¢ $50 4d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY L1ga Team 75¢ $50 4d
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 63¢ $10 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 5d
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech BUY Naomi Osaka 72¢ $10 5d
Mallorca Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Corentin Moutet 56¢ $10 5d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gianluca Cadenasso vs Federico Cina BUY Federico Cina 71¢ $10 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $64 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $251 7d
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 77¢ $20 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $201 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $14 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $76 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $7 126d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.42 · official $67.42 (match) · 3500 history records