Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:18:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcfd7…aaba crypto 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$420 (-30%) realized −$420 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%13W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day43.0pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$573
other 14% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +3.5% -6.4% 54% 46% -47.2%
≤30d 24 +3.5% -6.4% 54% 46% -47.2%
≤90d 24 +3.5% -6.4% 54% 46% -47.2%
all 24 +3.5% -6.4% 54% 46% -47.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.4% 46% -47.2%
10% ← realistic here -15.4% 46% -52.3%
15% -23.5% 46% -56.9%
20% -31.0% 33% -61.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late +57% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$71 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$420
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses13 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day43.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$23 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$20 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$5 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 28 $203 −$9 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 28 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 28 $105 −$102 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 28 $104 −$65 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 28 $103 −$90 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 28 $103 −$93 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 28 $103 +$54 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 28 $102 +$48 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 28 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 28 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$9 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $28 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 57¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.01 (match) · 57 history records