Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:20:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CF
0xcfd7…dfe9
weather · 722 markets active 0h ago
4.5score
+$226 +17%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$214 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$30
Realized+$214
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses377 / 327
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions18
Markets (closed)704 / 722
History coverage70d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day39.1
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 18 History 704 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$37
14 days+$42
30 days+$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Yes 40¢ 42¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 14? Yes 36¢ 56¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+57%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 14? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Yes 29¢ 57¢ $1 $3 +$1 (+97%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Yes 22¢ 32¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+49%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Yes 35¢ 35¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? Yes 9¢ 27¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+204%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? Yes 31¢ 21¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-31%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 14? Yes 1¢ 5¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+544%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+56%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+31%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 9? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 10? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on May 18? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on May 1? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 8? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 3? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 3? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +322%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +181%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $3 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$5 +281%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $6 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +225%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 +$1 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$7 +257%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 11 $1 +$1 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$2 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 11? Jun 10 $0 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$4 +141%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 10 $0 +$2 +374%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 11? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 10 $3 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 10 $5 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 10 $2 −$1 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$2 +46%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $4 −$3 -73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$210
sports 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? SELL Yes 42¢ $3 13m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 14? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 16m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 26m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 14? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 27m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 30m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 14? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 37m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 8¢ $0 47m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 48m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 57m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? SELL Yes 34¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 14? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 14? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+30.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 +77.6% +60.7% 55% 52% +15.7%
≤30d 343 +56.2% +41.3% 59% 55% +9.9%
≤90d 704 +44.5% +30.7% 54% 49% +9.3%
all 704 +44.5% +30.7% 54% 49% +9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover39.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +30.7% 49% +9.3%
10% ← realistic here +18.2% 43% -1.2%
15% +6.8% 38% -10.7%
20% -3.7% 32% -19.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.49 · official $30.38 (match) · 2754 history records