Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:48:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcfd6…7275 crypto 335 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,017 (-18%) realized −$1,017 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate29%98W / 237L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day23.4pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$242
14 days−$453
30 days−$486
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$623
sports 31% −$199
other 7% −$167
world 1% −$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -31.0% -37.6% 59% 10% -56.2%
≤30d 166 -32.2% -38.7% 38% 7% -31.2%
≤90d 300 -35.9% -42.0% 25% 6% -45.4%
all 335 -23.0% -30.3% 29% 11% -28.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.3% 11% -28.8%
10% ← realistic here -37.0% 10% -35.6%
15% -43.1% 9% -41.8%
20% -48.6% 7% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$10 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,017
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses98 / 237
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)335 / 335
History coverage110d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day23.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 335 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$5 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 13 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $23 −$9 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$11 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $50 −$35 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $23 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $23 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $13 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $13 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$3 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 10 $23 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $13 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $7 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 10 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 10 $14 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $14 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $4 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2943 history records