Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:23:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CF 0xcfd4…fe7b crypto 700 markets active 12h ago coverage 210d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$416 (-2%) realized −$410 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate55%373W / 309L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$94
7 days−$157
14 days+$71
30 days−$290
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$254
crypto 30% −$230
other 7% −$2
finance 2% −$25
world 1% $0
economics 0% −$21
politics 0% −$11
weather 0% −$16
tech 0% −$3
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 179 -14.6% -22.7% 62% 22% -14.9%
≤30d 356 -11.6% -20.0% 61% 20% -11.1%
≤90d 422 -12.9% -21.2% 60% 19% -11.5%
all 682 -11.1% -19.6% 55% 27% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 27% -11.9%
10% -27.3% 21% -20.3%
15% -34.3% 17% -28.0%
20% -40.7% 16% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage
Net worth$215
Realized−$410
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses373 / 309
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions14
Markets (closed)682 / 700
History coverage210d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 682 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Ben Shelton 77¢ 78¢ $57 $57 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 74¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-4%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 84¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 75¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+5%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 69¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Alexander Zverev 88¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 19¢ 17¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Yes 94¢ 86¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-54%)
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? Yes 25¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 183 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +12%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $15 +$1 +6%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$3 +13%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $20 +$6 +29%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $39 +$8 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -56%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $12 −$2 -14%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $20 +$12 +61%
Bitcoin above 65,600 on June 15, 9PM ET? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $2 $0 +19%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $15 +$4 +24%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $15 $0 -3%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $28 $0 +1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $25 $0 -1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $43 −$43 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin above 65,800 on June 15, 11AM ET? Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $35 +$12 +35%
Bitcoin above 65,000 on June 15, 5AM ET? Jun 15 $70 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 15 $15 −$12 -78%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin above 64,800 on June 14, 8PM ET? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin above 64,400 on June 14, 8PM ET? Jun 15 $80 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 64,600 on June 14, 8PM ET? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 14, 8PM ET? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,200 on June 14, 7PM ET? Jun 14 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 14, 7PM ET? Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above 64,600 on June 14, 7PM ET? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $18 +$3 +16%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 14, 6PM ET? Jun 14 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin above 64,800 on June 14, 6PM ET? Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $14 +$2 +13%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $1 +$1 +129%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 +$1 +6%
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 14 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 14, 12PM ET? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Ben Shelton 77¢ $37 11h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $5 11h
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 11h
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 11h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 89¢ $5 11h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $10 11h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 89¢ $5 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $11 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 11h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Alexander Zverev 88¢ $10 12h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Ben Shelton 78¢ $20 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $10 12h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 96¢ $10 12h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Alex de Minaur 82¢ $9 25h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Alex de Minaur 82¢ $10 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? SELL No 0¢ $1 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY No 0¢ $3 26h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $20 26h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Alex de Minaur 82¢ $10 26h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 96¢ $10 33h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 95¢ $10 33h
Bitcoin above 65,600 on June 15, 9PM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 33h
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 80¢ $3 33h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 92¢ $24 34h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 96¢ $2 34h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 34h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 44¢ $5 34h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 67¢ $10 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $215.19 · official $215.19 (match) · 3336 history records