Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:54:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcfd2…e68c sports 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$66 (-3%) realized −$67 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate50%16W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day24.1pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$494now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$113
tech 3% +$4
economics 2% +$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -22.8% -30.1% 50% 22% -11.6%
≤30d 32 -22.8% -30.1% 50% 22% -11.6%
≤90d 32 -22.8% -30.1% 50% 22% -11.6%
all 32 -22.8% -30.1% 50% 22% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.1% 22% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -36.8% 16% -20.1%
15% -42.9% 12% -27.8%
20% -48.5% 6% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$14 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$494
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses16 / 16
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions15
Markets (closed)32 / 47
History coverage6d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day24.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brayden Burries be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NBA Draft? No 99¢ 99¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Will Keaton Wagler be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NBA Draft? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $67 $67 +$0 (+0%)
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Yes 76¢ 81¢ $53 $57 +$4 (+8%)
Will Mikel Brown Jr. be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NBA Draft? No 99¢ 98¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-1%)
Will Darryn Peterson be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NBA Draft? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+0%)
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cameron Boozer be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NBA Draft? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Darius Acuff Jr. be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NBA Draft? No 99¢ 98¢ $40 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Will Caleb Wilson be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NBA Draft? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will AJ Dybantsa be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NBA Draft? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Cameron Boozer be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NBA Draft? Yes 76¢ 92¢ $16 $19 +$3 (+22%)
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FIFA World Cup Match? No 67¢ 82¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+22%)
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FIFA World Cup Match? No 13¢ 7¢ $6 $4 −$3 (-43%)
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the England vs Ghana FIFA World Cup Match? No 72¢ 76¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FIFA World Cup Match? No 12¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$4 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA Jun 18 $83 +$5 +6%
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Czechia vs South Africa Jun 18 $37 +$3 +8%
Will the announcers say "History" during the Czechia vs South Africa F Jun 18 $38 +$2 +6%
Will the announcers say "Penalty Shootout" during the Czechia vs South Jun 18 $34 +$6 +16%
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Czechia vs S Jun 18 $45 −$17 -38%
Will the announcers say "Hattrick / Hat Trick" during the Czechia vs S Jun 18 $9 −$7 -78%
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Czechia vs South Afri Jun 18 $41 +$10 +25%
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the Czechia vs South Afri Jun 18 $54 +$2 +4%
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Czechia vs South Africa Jun 18 $24 +$25 +102%
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Czechia vs South Africa FI Jun 18 $48 −$4 -9%
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Czechia vs South Africa Jun 18 $37 +$3 +9%
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Wor Jun 18 $89 −$32 -36%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF Jun 18 $48 −$34 -71%
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Czechia vs South Africa FI Jun 18 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the announcers say "Powerade" during the Czechia vs South Africa Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF Jun 18 $2 $0 -12%
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Czechia vs South Africa FI Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Czechia vs South Africa F Jun 18 $26 −$16 -61%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Czechia vs South Africa F Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF Jun 18 $120 −$5 -4%
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA Jun 18 $73 −$7 -10%
Will the announcers say "History" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W Jun 18 $95 +$11 +11%
Will the announcers say "Legend" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wo Jun 18 $68 +$2 +2%
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg / Meg" during the Czechia vs South Afr Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Jun 18 $53 +$4 +8%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor Jun 18 $133 +$8 +6%
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the England vs Croatia FI Jun 18 $11 +$4 +41%
Will the announcers say "Penalty" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W Jun 17 $147 +$8 +5%
Will Warsh say "Jerome" or "Powell" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $31 +$69 +223%
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the England vs Croatia FI Jun 17 $48 +$24 +50%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 89¢ $28 1h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 89¢ $16 1h
Will Mikel Brown Jr. be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 99¢ $56 1h
Will Brayden Burries be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 99¢ $69 1h
Will Darius Acuff Jr. be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 99¢ $40 1h
Will Darryn Peterson be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 98¢ $29 1h
Will Keaton Wagler be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 98¢ $28 1h
Will Keaton Wagler be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 98¢ $40 1h
Will Caleb Wilson be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 1h
Will AJ Dybantsa be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 1h
Will Darryn Peterson be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 1h
Will Cameron Boozer be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 99¢ $40 1h
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 76¢ $54 1h
Will Cameron Boozer be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 76¢ $16 1h
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FIF BUY No 12¢ $5 2h
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FIF BUY No 13¢ $6 12h
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan F BUY No 67¢ $6 13h
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the England vs Ghana FIFA BUY No 72¢ $1 13h
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the England vs Ghana FIFA BUY No 72¢ $0 13h
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Wor SELL Yes 60¢ $18 5d
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Czechia vs South Africa FI BUY No 19¢ $0 5d
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Czechia vs South Africa BUY Yes 40¢ $1 5d
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Czechia vs South Africa BUY Yes 40¢ $15 5d
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA BUY No 1¢ $2 5d
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF BUY Yes 57¢ $1 5d
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA SELL Yes 95¢ $38 5d
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Czechia vs South Africa FI BUY Yes 61¢ $1 5d
Will the announcers say "Powerade" during the Czechia vs South Africa BUY Yes 4¢ $4 5d
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Czechia vs South Africa FI BUY Yes 73¢ $21 5d
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Czechia vs South Africa FI BUY Yes 73¢ $8 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $494.32 · official $491.58 (match) · 169 history records