Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:47:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
CF 0xcfd2…1f23 other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-2%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$274per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$92
7 days−$140
14 days−$107
30 days−$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$264
sports 21% +$157
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.8% -11.1% 60% 50% -14.4%
≤30d 11 -1.2% -10.6% 64% 45% -12.5%
≤90d 11 -1.2% -10.6% 64% 45% -12.5%
all 11 -1.2% -10.6% 64% 45% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 45% -12.5%
10% -19.1% 36% -20.9%
15% -26.9% 36% -28.5%
20% -34.1% 9% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$126 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage7d
Avg bet$274
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $201 −$49 -24%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $151 −$151 -100%
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND Wi Jun 28 $250 +$108 +43%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $237 +$98 +41%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$38 +38%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $171 +$34 +20%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $302 −$302 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $104 +$64 +62%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $691 +$20 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $658 +$33 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 66¢ $152 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $151 9h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 86¢ $201 9h
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND Wi BUY 69¢ $250 2d
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 AND Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY 12¢ $15 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $335 4d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $237 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $205 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $171 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $169 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 61¢ $104 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $408 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $409 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $302 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $711 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 97¢ $691 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $691 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $658 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records