Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:23:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcfd2…68b0 crypto 105 markets active 0h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,527 (-12%) realized −$1,668 · open +$141
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%40W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$523now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$283
7 days+$283
14 days+$283
30 days−$192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$2,325
other 11% +$425
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +29.2% +16.9% 18% 18% +15.7%
≤30d 22 -9.0% -17.7% 23% 23% -17.0%
≤90d 101 -10.2% -18.7% 40% 38% -24.6%
all 101 -10.2% -18.7% 40% 38% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 38% -24.6%
10% -26.5% 34% -31.8%
15% -33.6% 30% -38.4%
20% -40.1% 27% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$100 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$523
Realized−$1,668
Unrealized+$141
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses40 / 61
Open positions4
Markets (closed)101 / 105
History coverage76d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Yes 15¢ 37¢ $94 $232 +$138 (+147%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Yes 14¢ 26¢ $100 $189 +$89 (+89%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $94 $103 +$9 (+9%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $94 $0 −$94 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $271 −$37 -14%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $103 −$48 -47%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $153 +$373 +243%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $71 −$70 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $61 −$44 -71%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $51 −$29 -56%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $51 −$24 -47%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $107 −$104 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $51 +$365 +712%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 22 $207 −$197 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 22 $105 −$95 -90%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 22 $105 −$98 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 22 $71 −$68 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 22 $104 +$101 +96%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 22 $104 −$88 -85%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 22 $204 +$253 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 22 $115 −$109 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 22 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 22 $105 +$27 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 22 $105 −$100 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 16 $397 −$380 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 16 $105 −$100 -95%
XRP Up or Down - May 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 16 $40 −$36 -90%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 16 $65 −$62 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 16 $105 −$93 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 16 $105 −$100 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 16 $73 −$70 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 16 $149 +$10 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 16 $53 −$50 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 16 $49 +$62 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 16 $53 −$47 -89%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 16 $105 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET May 07 $211 +$165 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET May 07 $42 −$40 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET May 07 $102 −$97 -95%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 04 $105 +$53 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 04 $210 +$145 +69%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 04 $303 +$33 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 04 $84 −$82 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 04 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 04 $301 +$103 +34%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 04 $158 −$99 -63%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 04 $106 −$100 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 02 $106 −$89 -83%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 02 $52 +$77 +147%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 02 $53 −$44 -82%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 02 $104 −$94 -90%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 02 $211 −$200 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 26¢ $235 26m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 29¢ $255 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 26¢ $16 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 9¢ $55 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $97 3h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 3h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $97 3h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $96 3h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 100¢ $526 3h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 28¢ $153 3h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 31¢ $71 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 10¢ $18 4h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? SELL Yes 3¢ $23 4h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 9¢ $27 4h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 5h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 33¢ $61 14h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 14h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 14h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 14h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 14h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 29d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $206 29d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $10 29d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $105 29d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $7 29d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $19 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $523.38 · official $523.38 (match) · 244 history records