Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:39:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcfd1…fc92 other 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate49%22W / 23L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% $0
other 32% +$1
politics 12% +$1
finance 5% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 3% $0
sports 1% $0
weather 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.3% -7.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 14 -1.8% -11.1% 43% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 14 -1.8% -11.1% 43% 0% -9.6%
all 45 -0.9% -10.3% 49% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses22 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage467d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $13 +$1 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $47 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 04 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $106 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $119 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $4 −$1 -36%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $45 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $48 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $88 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $43 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $56 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $51 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $35 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $15 +$1 +7%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 16 $5 $0 -2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Jun 26 $13 $0 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? May 05 $16 $0 -1%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be out as Secretary of Health and Human Ser Apr 20 $13 $0 +0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in his first 100 days? Apr 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 18 $14 $0 -1%
Will John-Ion Banu-Muscel advance to the Romanian Presidential Electio Apr 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in his first 100 days? Apr 12 $16 $0 -0%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? Apr 11 $16 $0 +1%
Will Everton be relegated? Apr 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? Apr 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 08 $3 $0 -5%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease? Apr 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 08 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 06 $11 $0 +4%
Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow as next Fed Chair? Apr 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $4 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 03 $16 $0 +1%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 31 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 30 $15 +$1 +5%
Israeli military action against Iran by Friday? Mar 23 $13 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 51°F or below on March 17? Mar 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will another team have the highest Constructor score at the Australian Mar 15 $17 $0 +1%
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election? Mar 15 $17 $0 +1%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 4-10? Mar 10 $1 $0 -25%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 10 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $41 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $49 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 12h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 18h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $44 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 24h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 26h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $3 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $2 2d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 80¢ $48 16d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $49 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $5 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $6 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $49 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $49 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $16 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $8 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $30 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $2 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes $4 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $23 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $21 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $45 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $37 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.20 · official $8.20 (match) · 157 history records