Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:12:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CF 0xcfca…9722 other 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,152 (+7%) realized +$289 · open +$863
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate67%28W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day17.1pace
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$9,362now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$322
30 days−$903
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$529
crypto 40% −$552
world 0% +$1
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 36 -5.0% -14.1% 64% 36% -22.6%
≤90d 42 -2.5% -11.8% 67% 36% -21.7%
all 42 -2.5% -11.8% 67% 36% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 36% -21.7%
10% -20.2% 26% -29.2%
15% -27.9% 19% -36.0%
20% -35.0% 12% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$170 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$9,362
Realized+$289
Unrealized+$863
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses28 / 14
Open positions44
Markets (closed)42 / 86
History coverage52d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 44 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 82¢ $1,235 $1,231 −$4 (-0%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 75¢ 89¢ $1,030 $1,215 +$185 (+18%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 60¢ 84¢ $828 $1,164 +$335 (+40%)
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 97¢ $742 $801 +$59 (+8%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? No 81¢ 90¢ $571 $638 +$67 (+12%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No 44¢ 72¢ $328 $533 +$206 (+63%)
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 74¢ 75¢ $440 $444 +$4 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 96¢ $326 $358 +$32 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? No 76¢ 88¢ $304 $350 +$46 (+15%)
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in June? Yes 25¢ 50¢ $153 $309 +$156 (+102%)
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $120 in June? Yes 19¢ 24¢ $215 $274 +$59 (+28%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 22¢ 30¢ $168 $221 +$53 (+32%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $220 $208 −$12 (-5%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 94¢ $145 $164 +$18 (+13%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $135 $137 +$2 (+2%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? No 62¢ 86¢ $97 $135 +$38 (+39%)
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $114 in June? Yes 13¢ $192 $128 −$64 (-33%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 41¢ 40¢ $126 $125 −$1 (-1%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026? Yes 21¢ 11¢ $210 $110 −$100 (-48%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 34¢ 36¢ $102 $106 +$4 (+4%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 86¢ 96¢ $86 $96 +$10 (+11%)
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 84¢ $95 $93 −$3 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 51¢ 67¢ $67 $87 +$20 (+30%)
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $102 in June? Yes $168 $66 −$102 (-61%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? No 54¢ 29¢ $114 $62 −$52 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $132 in June? Jun 09 $125 +$211 +169%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? Jun 08 $46 −$31 -67%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 08 $67 +$4 +6%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,400 by end of June? Jun 06 $188 +$137 +73%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $66,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $42 +$174 +410%
Will Cal Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jules Vaughn die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethan Daley die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $20 +$1 +8%
Will Elliot die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $1 $0 +3%
Will Lexi Howard die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $1 $0 +3%
Will Cassie Howard die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $45 +$1 +2%
Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $1 $0 +5%
Will Faye die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $556 +$37 +7%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $735 +$290 +39%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of June? May 27 $78 +$33 +43%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 April 27-May 3? May 27 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 April 27-May 3? May 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United? May 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Hyperliquid reach $50 by December 31, 2026? May 27 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 27 $273 −$180 -66%
Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 27 $241 −$218 -90%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? May 27 $457 −$457 -100%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? May 27 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? May 27 $1,065 −$1,000 -94%
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $93 +$26 +28%
Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $101 +$61 +60%
Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $111 +$13 +12%
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $214 +$71 +33%
Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $17 +$3 +20%
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $749 +$154 +20%
Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $109 +$36 +33%
Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $495 +$5 +1%
Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $76 +$45 +59%
Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list May 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 17 $4 +$2 +46%
Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 12 $48 +$5 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 01 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of June? Apr 29 $88 +$1 +1%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? Apr 28 $25 +$2 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April? Apr 28 $61 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $151 1h
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $292 1h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 41¢ $4 2h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 41¢ $4 2h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 41¢ $4 2h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 41¢ $4 2h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 41¢ $4 2h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 41¢ $4 2h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 41¢ $4 2h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 41¢ $4 2h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 41¢ $4 2h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 41¢ $4 2h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 41¢ $4 2h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 41¢ $4 2h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 41¢ $33 2h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 41¢ $37 2h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 41¢ $4 2h
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 69¢ $14 2h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 40¢ $1 3h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 40¢ $1 3h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 40¢ $1 3h
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 34¢ $102 20h
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 27h
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $120 in June? SELL Yes 29¢ $16 28h
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL Yes 50¢ $7 29h
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL Yes 50¢ $12 29h
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL Yes 50¢ $20 32h
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL Yes 49¢ $7 38h
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL Yes 49¢ $8 40h
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL Yes 49¢ $5 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,362.49 · official $9,377.02 (match) · 989 history records