Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:15:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
CF 0xcfc4…2ada other 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 710d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$148 (+1%) realized +$900 · open −$752
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate61%37W / 24L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$257per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$800now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days+$120
14 days+$160
30 days+$160
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$625
sports 7% +$14
politics 2% +$6
crypto 1% +$2
world 0% −$3
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 20 +1.3% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 26 -22.0% -29.5% 77% 0% -8.7%
all 61 -21.5% -29.0% 61% 20% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.0% 20% -8.6%
10% -35.8% 15% -17.4%
15% -42.0% 11% -25.4%
20% -47.7% 10% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -34% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.63 per $1 lost it wins $3.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

710d coverage
Net worth$800
Realized+$900
Unrealized−$752
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses37 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)61 / 63
History coverage710d
Avg bet$257
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ goals + assists No 99¢ 51¢ $1,547 $797 −$750 (-48%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 63¢ 40¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordy Caicedo: 3+ goals Jun 21 $1,548 +$15 +1%
Cody Gakpo: 4+ goals + assists Jun 20 $1,549 +$15 +1%
Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ goals Jun 20 $1,549 +$15 +1%
Alejandro Zendejas: 3+ goals Jun 19 $1,549 +$15 +1%
Lukáš Červ: 2+ goals Jun 19 $578 +$11 +2%
Patrik Schick: 3+ goals Jun 19 $971 +$10 +1%
Pedro Neto: 3+ goals Jun 17 $1,544 +$15 +1%
Leo Østigård: 3+ goals Jun 17 $560 +$5 +1%
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals Jun 16 $559 +$12 +2%
Alex Baena: 3+ goals Jun 15 $552 +$6 +1%
Spread: Haiti (-2.5) Jun 14 $555 +$8 +1%
Exact Score: Qatar 3 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $553 +$5 +1%
Gunnar Henderson: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $498 +$5 +1%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 3 South Africa? Jun 11 $411 +$4 +1%
Exact Score: England 0 - 2 Costa Rica? Jun 11 $209 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 10 $286 +$9 +3%
Exact Score: Liberia 3 - 3 Sierra Leone? Jun 10 $492 +$5 +1%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Uzbekistan? Jun 08 $193 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 08 $6 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 08 $6 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "28 Years Later" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $34-38m? Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) Apr 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce podcast get between 5-10m views on da Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-04? Apr 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce podcast get less than 5m views on day Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? Feb 04 $360 +$5 +1%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Passion UA (BO3) Dec 11 $18 +$8 +47%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Vitality (BO1) Dec 05 $17 +$5 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Dec 04 $5 +$5 +89%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Dec 02 $9 +$9 +100%
Will Jiri Lehecka win the 2025 Bitpanda Hamburg Open? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
India military action against Pakistan before June? May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum all time high in April? May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 President’s Trophy? May 22 $1 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin above $84,000 on March 7? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum above $2,300 on March 7? Apr 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say 'retard' or 'retarded' during the 2025 State of the Uni Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump appeal his hush money conviction? Feb 20 $0 +$1 +150%
Trump in jail before inauguration? Feb 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Feb 20 $14 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024? Jan 16 $3 $0 +14%
OpenSea token announcement in 2024? Jan 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in December? Jan 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? Jan 16 $0 $0 +2%
MSFT shareholders vote for Bitcoin investment? Dec 22 $1 $0 +11%
Will Wisconsin be the closest state? Dec 22 $1 $0 -12%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? Dec 22 $5 +$1 +20%
Unrealized gains tax passed before election day? Nov 29 $1 $0 +0%
Trump wins every swing state? Nov 29 $2 $0 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $1,548 1h
Jordy Caicedo: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,548 11h
Cody Gakpo: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $1,549 26h
Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,549 36h
Alejandro Zendejas: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,549 2d
Patrik Schick: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $971 2d
Lukáš Červ: 2+ goals BUY No 98¢ $578 2d
Pedro Neto: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,544 3d
Leo Østigård: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $560 4d
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY No 98¢ $559 5d
Alex Baena: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $552 5d
Spread: Haiti (-2.5) BUY Scotland 99¢ $555 7d
Exact Score: Qatar 3 - 2 Switzerland? BUY No 99¢ $553 7d
Gunnar Henderson: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $498 9d
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 3 South Africa? BUY No 99¢ $411 10d
Exact Score: England 0 - 2 Costa Rica? BUY No 99¢ $209 10d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 97¢ $286 11d
Exact Score: Liberia 3 - 3 Sierra Leone? BUY No 99¢ $492 12d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Uzbekistan? BUY No 99¢ $193 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 13d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 13d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 13d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $0 13d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 13d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 13d
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 75d
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? SELL Yes 91¢ $365 136d
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? BUY Yes 90¢ $360 148d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-04? BUY Yes 65¢ $9 167d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $800.35 · official $800.35 (match) · 136 history records