Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T07:58:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CF
0xcfc2…0b59
politics · 233 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$9,735 +15%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$9,869 · open −$39
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP politics specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$687
Realized+$9,869
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses99 / 129
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)228 / 233
Avg bet$286
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 6 History 228 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$129
14 days+$234
30 days−$1,042
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 12, 2026? Yes 53¢ 55¢ $309 $315 +$7 (+2%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 83¢ 88¢ $248 $265 +$17 (+7%)
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 12, 2026? Yes 21¢ 44¢ $32 $69 +$37 (+115%)
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Down 84¢ 51¢ $54 $33 −$21 (-39%)
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 12, 2026? Yes 26¢ 2¢ $61 $4 −$57 (-94%)
Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 40.0 on June 12, 2026? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-99%)
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on May 15, 2026? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $204 $0 −$204 (-100%)
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 5, 2026? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $102 $0 −$102 (-100%)
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on May 22, 2026? Yes 68¢ 0¢ $135 $0 −$135 (-100%)
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 5, 2026? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $107 $0 −$107 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 11 $9 $0 +5%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 5, 2026? Jun 07 $109 +$241 +220%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Jun 06 $371 +$153 +41%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $186 −$157 -84%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $179 −$109 -61%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on May 29, 2026? Jun 01 $162 −$125 -78%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on May 29, 2026? May 30 $328 +$233 +71%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? May 30 $170 +$44 +26%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on May 29, 2026? May 30 $56 −$47 -85%
Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 39.5 on May 29, 2026? May 29 $1 $0 -44%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on May 22, 2026? May 23 $416 +$388 +93%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on May 22, 2026? May 23 $1,233 −$834 -68%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 37.5 and 37.9 on May 22, 2026? May 22 $48 −$35 -72%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? May 22 $147 −$50 -34%
Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 38.0% by the end of May? May 21 $73 −$16 -22%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on May 22, 2026? May 21 $14 +$3 +21%
Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 37.5% by the end of May? May 21 $16 +$4 +23%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on May 15, 2026? May 15 $193 −$204 -106%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on May 15, 2026? May 15 $951 −$294 -31%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on May 15, 2026? May 14 $338 −$238 -70%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on May 1, 2026? May 11 $193 −$24 -13%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on May 1, 2026? May 11 $12 +$16 +136%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on May 8, 2026? May 11 $261 −$197 -75%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? May 11 $48 +$28 +58%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? May 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? May 09 $312 +$78 +25%
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 39.0 on May 8, 2026? May 09 $1,251 +$382 +30%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on May 1, 2026? May 02 $1,231 +$44 +4%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? May 02 $239 +$54 +23%
Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 40.0 on May 1, 2026? May 01 $5 −$2 -41%
Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 39.0% in April? Apr 25 $82 +$113 +137%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Apr 25 $110 +$33 +30%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on April 24, 202 Apr 25 $1,081 +$174 +16%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on April 24, 202 Apr 24 $288 −$171 -59%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on April 24, 202 Apr 24 $383 −$309 -81%
Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 40.5 on April 24, 2026? Apr 22 $5 −$3 -60%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on April 24, 202 Apr 21 $270 −$136 -50%
Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary elect Apr 19 $75 +$939 +1256%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 19 $888 +$77 +9%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 19 $771 +$1,001 +130%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on April 17, 202 Apr 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on April 17, 202 Apr 18 $45 +$52 +116%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 17 $45 +$5 +12%
Will TISZA win 54%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian P Apr 16 $53 −$12 -23%
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary electio Apr 14 $99 −$17 -17%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 60 seats? Apr 13 $57 +$250 +438%
Will voter turnout be 68–71% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary elect Apr 13 $4 +$37 +944%
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority? Apr 13 $32 +$8 +25%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 70 seats? Apr 13 $84 +$101 +120%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 90 seats? Apr 13 $37 +$20 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 97% +$9,466
crypto 1% −$80
other 1% +$463
world 0% −$6
tech 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 12, 2026 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 33m
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 12, 2026 SELL Yes 2¢ $1 33m
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 12, 2026 SELL Yes 18¢ $4 37m
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 12, 2026 BUY Yes 54¢ $14 2h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 12, 2026 BUY Yes 49¢ $5 10h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 12, 2026 BUY Yes 48¢ $19 10h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 12, 2026 BUY Yes 59¢ $5 10h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 93¢ $9 11h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 88¢ $9 12h
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 20h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 12, 2026 SELL Yes 8¢ $3 21h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 12, 2026 SELL Yes 7¢ $5 21h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 12, 2026 SELL Yes 8¢ $4 21h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 12, 2026 BUY Yes 59¢ $60 37h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 12, 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $38 37h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 12, 2026 BUY Yes 8¢ $2 39h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 12, 2026 BUY Yes 72¢ $22 40h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 12, 2026 BUY Yes 72¢ $14 40h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 12, 2026 BUY Yes 28¢ $9 41h
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 46h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 12, 2026 SELL Yes 30¢ $12 46h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 12, 2026 SELL Yes 37¢ $12 2d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 12, 2026 BUY Yes 49¢ $21 2d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 12, 2026 BUY Yes 50¢ $9 2d
Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 40.0 on June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 12, 2026 SELL No 55¢ $19 2d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 12, 2026 SELL No 55¢ $6 2d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 12, 2026 SELL No 55¢ $16 2d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 12, 2026 SELL No 55¢ $8 2d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 12, 2026 SELL No 55¢ $41 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +13.3% +2.5% 60% 40% +14.4%
≤30d 20 -16.7% -24.7% 40% 35% -16.4%
≤90d 73 +28.0% +15.8% 45% 40% +9.2%
all 228 +21.0% +9.5% 43% 36% +4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.5% 36% +4.9%
10% -1.0% 31% -5.1%
15% -10.5% 25% -14.3%
20% -19.3% 23% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $686.84 · official $683.95 (match) · 3500 history records