Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:02:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CF
0xcfc1…57b2
sports · 162 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$35 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$31 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$31
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses78 / 81
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)159 / 162
History coverage43d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 3 History 159 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$22
14 days+$21
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Spirit 34¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Will any player break a device during IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1? Yes 13¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-69%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 THUNDER dOWNUNDER 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs NRG (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A NRG 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A MOUZ 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Up 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Astralis 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 35¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: paiN vs M80 (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A paiN 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs NIP (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B NIP 75¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 FlyQuest 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B Lynn Vision 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs MIBR (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group B 3DMAX 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 FlyQuest 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Aurora Gaming 25¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 2? Up 8¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Astralis 63¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B TheMongolz 67¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 68¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Lynn Vision 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 M80 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026 Grand Final be a sweep? No 68¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Astralis 61¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +26%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $11 +$3 +23%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 13 $11 −$5 -47%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 −$2 -66%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $7 +$2 +25%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Will ZywOo reach 36 HLTV MVP awards by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $11 −$6 -54%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $9 +$27 +296%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $5 +$1 +27%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4 −$1 -26%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$3 +64%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 −$1 -33%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $17 −$6 -32%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $16 +$8 +47%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +86%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 $0 +27%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $6 −$1 -21%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 $0 +37%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $2 +$3 +161%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +116%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2 +$1 +53%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2 $0 +24%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $3 −$2 -65%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $2 +$1 +33%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 +$1 +69%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $2 +$3 +169%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $3 +$3 +113%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $20 −$6 -30%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will G2 qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 07 $1 $0 +18%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 +$1 +81%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 $0 +49%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 +$1 +80%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 +$2 +169%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1 $0 +21%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $1 +$1 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 71% +$30
crypto 18% −$45
world 9% −$14
other 3% −$4
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 35¢ $1 18m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 33¢ $1 19m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 61¢ $6 35m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 35¢ $1 35m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 45¢ $2 40m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $2 40m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 68¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 32¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 12¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION 38¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 97¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 35¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $4 4h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 70¢ $3 6h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Monte 30¢ $5 6h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 7h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 15¢ $1 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 72¢ $1 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 51¢ $1 8h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 78¢ $2 8h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 30¢ $3 8h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Monte 29¢ $3 8h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 22¢ $2 8h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 87¢ $3 9h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 66¢ $4 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $1 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 53¢ $1 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 49¢ $6 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 26¢ $1 10h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 47¢ $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +9.7% -0.7% 62% 57% +3.6%
≤30d 118 -9.0% -17.7% 54% 51% -11.7%
≤90d 159 -13.6% -21.8% 49% 46% -17.2%
all 159 -13.6% -21.8% 49% 46% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 46% -17.2%
10% -29.3% 41% -25.1%
15% -36.1% 33% -32.3%
20% -42.4% 26% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.96 · official $1.96 (match) · 405 history records