Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:00:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CF 0xcfbc…1fb5 sports 325 markets active 7h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$200 (-10%) realized −$192 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%151W / 170L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day22.3pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$99
14 days−$216
30 days−$244
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$181
other 14% −$35
world 2% +$2
crypto 2% −$33
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -14.5% -22.6% 47% 45% -27.4%
≤30d 321 -9.8% -18.4% 47% 46% -21.2%
≤90d 321 -9.8% -18.4% 47% 46% -21.2%
all 321 -9.8% -18.4% 47% 46% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.4% 46% -21.2%
10% ← realistic here -26.2% 45% -28.8%
15% -33.3% 40% -35.6%
20% -39.9% 33% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$192
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses151 / 170
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions4
Markets (closed)321 / 325
History coverage25d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day22.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 321 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Luis Javier Suárez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $12 $2 −$10 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +36%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$8 +156%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$3 +63%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $38 +$4 +10%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$4 +78%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $25 −$14 -57%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$6 +197%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +88%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $3 +$1 +25%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +64%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $5 +$4 +78%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $3 +$7 +213%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +53%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 +$9 +170%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 +$3 +92%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 −$4 -79%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $4 +$3 +61%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $5 +$3 +66%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $5 $0 -8%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $5 +$3 +69%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $5 +$4 +83%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $5 +$1 +26%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +112%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 7h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 38¢ $5 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $5 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 12h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 96¢ $9 34h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 34h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $5 34h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 35h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 37h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 39h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 59¢ $3 39h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $3 40h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 37¢ $10 41h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $3 43h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 73¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 73¢ $4 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $3 2d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 55¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 67¢ $3 2d
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY TheMongolz 38¢ $3 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 31¢ $3 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 15¢ $1 3d
Switzerland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 68¢ $5 3d
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 60¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.11 · official $29.11 (match) · 832 history records