Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:08:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcfbb…4197 crypto 282 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (813 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$45,079 (+818%) realized +$45,079 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate10%54W / 492L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day813.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$5,543
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (813 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)+27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 546 +40.7% +27.3% 10% 10% -18.9%
≤30d 546 +40.7% +27.3% 10% 10% -18.9%
≤90d 546 +40.7% +27.3% 10% 10% -18.9%
all 546 +40.7% +27.3% 10% 10% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover813.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +27.3% 10% -18.9%
10% ← realistic here +15.1% 10% -26.7%
15% +4.0% 10% -33.8%
20% -6.2% 10% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +120% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
12.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$14 · ×8.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$45,079
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses54 / 492
Open positions0
Markets (closed)546 / 282
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day813.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 546 Trades
no open positions (498 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 29 $0 +$10 +4901%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 29 $0 +$1 +4900%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$1 +1328%
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$1 +1328%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +1902%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +1332%
XRP Up or Down - June 2, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +1329%
XRP Up or Down - April 30, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +4900%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +1329%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +1328%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 29 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 29 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 29 $66 −$66 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 1, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 29 $13 −$13 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 2, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 29 $40 −$40 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 2, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 29 $28 −$28 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 29 $22 −$22 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 29 $57 −$57 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 2, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 18m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 48m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $7 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $4 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $4 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.19 · official $11.13 · 3500 history records