Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:16:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CF 0xcfb3…6f75 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$42 (+38%) realized +$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +41% what you keep after slip
Net edge+41%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%5W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$5
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$41
other 23% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+40.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +28.2% +16.0% 100% 100% +14.7%
≤90d 5 +55.6% +40.8% 100% 100% +34.3%
all 5 +55.6% +40.8% 100% 100% +34.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +40.8% 100% +34.3%
10% +27.3% 80% +21.5%
15% +15.0% 40% +9.7%
20% +3.7% 20% -1.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +56% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses5 / 0
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage33d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? No 25¢ 24¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Prostejov: Alex Molcan vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 05 $16 +$5 +32%
Heilbronn: Marco Trungelliti vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu Jun 04 $26 +$5 +18%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 31 $14 +$3 +24%
Roland Garros ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Jurij Rodionov May 25 $15 +$6 +38%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $13 +$22 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $26 1h
Prostejov: Alex Molcan vs Vitaliy Sachko BUY Alex Molcan 75¢ $16 14d
Heilbronn: Marco Trungelliti vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu BUY Marco Trungelliti 84¢ $26 15d
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs BUY Team Secret Whales 80¢ $14 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Arthur Rinderknech 72¢ $15 25d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Cavaliers 37¢ $13 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.50 · official $24.50 (match) · 11 history records