Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:30:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CF
0xcfae…9ded
crypto · 106 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
+$575 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$598 · open −$23
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$57
Realized+$598
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses21 / 82
Open positions3
Markets (closed)103 / 106
History coverage21d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 3 History 103 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$169
7 days+$678
14 days−$276
30 days+$598
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-15%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-52%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? No 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$2 -27%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $16 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 12 $22 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$11 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $32 −$32 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Jun 09 $110 +$889 +805%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $52 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 02 $56 −$54 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 02 $114 −$38 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 02 $23 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 02 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $252 −$123 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $123 +$1 +1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 01 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 01 $32 −$14 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 01 $19 +$20 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 01 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 01 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 01 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 01 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 01 $8 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 01 $4 −$4 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 40% −$536
crypto 38% −$349
world 22% +$1,475
politics 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $13 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $4 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? BUY No 0¢ $10 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 4h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $3 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $3 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-36.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -45.0% -50.3% 11% 11% +148.7%
≤30d 103 -30.1% -36.8% 20% 17% +1.5%
≤90d 103 -30.1% -36.8% 20% 17% +1.5%
all 103 -30.1% -36.8% 20% 17% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.8% 17% +1.5%
10% -42.8% 17% -8.2%
15% -48.4% 16% -17.1%
20% -53.4% 15% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.01 · official $57.01 (match) · 334 history records