Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:29:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CF 0xcfae…0abf crypto 74 markets active 5d ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$119 (+1%) realized +$118 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate62%44W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% −$11
other 46% −$16
crypto 7% +$141
tech 0% +$1
world 0% +$4
finance 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +7.6% -2.6% 89% 56% -2.6%
≤30d 18 +7.6% -2.6% 89% 56% -2.6%
≤90d 27 -4.9% -14.0% 81% 41% -14.0%
all 71 -4.5% -13.6% 62% 42% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 42% -8.6%
10% -21.9% 30% -17.3%
15% -29.4% 23% -25.3%
20% -36.4% 21% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$19 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$118
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses44 / 27
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)71 / 74
History coverage238d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 88¢ 94¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+31%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +62%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $3 $0 +3%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $1 $0 +26%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $1 $0 +35%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $2 $0 +2%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $1 $0 +18%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $1 $0 +20%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $1 $0 +7%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $1 $0 +28%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +11%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 11 $1 $0 +20%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 +41%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 11 $1 +$1 +57%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 11 $25 $0 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 12 $1 −$1 -97%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? May 12 $2 $0 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 5PM ET Apr 18 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Apr 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 01 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5AM ET Mar 04 $96 +$155 +161%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $5,280 −$10 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8AM ET Mar 03 $180 +$420 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6AM ET Mar 02 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5AM ET Mar 02 $122 −$122 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3AM ET Mar 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $5,250 −$5 -0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 29 $8 −$2 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 3PM ET Dec 29 $4 +$4 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 3PM ET Dec 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Dec 02 $4 +$1 +21%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs M80 (BO3) Dec 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Dec 02 $5 +$5 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Nov 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Everton win on 2025-11-24? Nov 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Nuggets vs. Rockets Nov 24 $1 +$1 +122%
Thunder vs. Jazz Nov 24 $7 +$1 +10%
Kings vs. Spurs Nov 21 $1 $0 +30%
Magic vs. Rockets Nov 21 $1 $0 +32%
Warriors vs. Pelicans Nov 21 $4 +$1 +20%
Hawks vs. Suns Nov 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Nets vs. Wizards Nov 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Nov 15 $4 +$4 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $7 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 6d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 93¢ $3 6d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $3 6d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 79¢ $1 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 74¢ $1 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $2 6d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 83¢ $1 6d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 85¢ $1 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 83¢ $1 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $1 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 78¢ $1 6d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 90¢ $1 6d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 63¢ $1 23d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 82¢ $1 23d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 100¢ $20 23d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? BUY No 98¢ $5 35d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1 35d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $1 35d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $1 35d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $1 35d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 35d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 97¢ $5 49d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? BUY No 97¢ $2 59d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY No 99¢ $5 59d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 97¢ $5 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 5PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.27 · official $25.27 (match) · 140 history records