Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:55:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CF 0xcfae…74e3 crypto 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$55 (+10%) realized +$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate55%18W / 15L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days+$57
14 days+$57
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$24
crypto 22% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +10.1% -0.3% 50% 40% +2.5%
≤30d 10 +10.1% -0.3% 50% 40% +2.5%
≤90d 33 -11.4% -19.8% 55% 39% -2.0%
all 33 -11.4% -19.8% 55% 39% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 39% -2.0%
10% -27.5% 36% -11.4%
15% -34.5% 27% -20.0%
20% -40.9% 18% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 87% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.95 per $1 lost it wins $1.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses18 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage51d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 21 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 21 $36 $0 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 21 $61 −$10 -16%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$35 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$35 +70%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $164 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 03 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 03 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 03 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 03 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 02 $1 $0 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 02 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 02 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 02 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 02 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 02 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 02 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 02 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 02 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 01 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 01 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 01 $12 −$8 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 01 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 01 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 01 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 01 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 50¢ $50 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 48¢ $36 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 50¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $36 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 58¢ $61 17h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $86 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 33h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 35h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 36h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $86 36h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 46h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $78 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $82 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $84 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $82 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $1 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.41 · official $50.41 (match) · 85 history records