Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:59:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CF
0xcfad…fa05
sports · 1032 markets active 0h ago
8.0score
+$17,662 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$15,821 · open +$1,727
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5,475
Realized+$15,821
Unrealized+$1,727
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses624 / 402
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$2,938
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1026 / 1032
History coverage362d
Avg bet$236
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 6 History 1026 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,055
7 days−$752
14 days−$862
30 days+$10,118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner T1 49¢ 100¢ $1,400 $2,856 +$1,456 (+104%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Bilibili Gaming 57¢ 100¢ $700 $1,229 +$529 (+76%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Gen.G 65¢ 100¢ $600 $923 +$323 (+54%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Gen.G 59¢ 44¢ $298 $220 −$78 (-26%)
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $150 $127 −$23 (-15%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Top Esports 52¢ 10¢ $600 $121 −$479 (-80%)
LoL: Kaufland Hangry Knights vs Eintracht Spandau (BO1) - Prime League 1st Division Regular Season Kaufland Hangry Knights 27¢ 0¢ $147 $0 −$147 (-100%)
LoL: ZeroZone Gaming vs The Otter Side (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season ZeroZone Gaming 24¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner EDward Gaming 80¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Deep Cross Gaming 38¢ 0¢ $700 $0 −$700 (-100%)
LoL: GIANTX iTero vs FALKE Esports - Game 2 Winner FALKE Esports 21¢ 0¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Gen.G 77¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
LoL: FURIA Esports vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Cloud9 57¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner LOUD 74¢ 0¢ $600 $0 −$600 (-100%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Shifters (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Shifters 22¢ 0¢ $195 $0 −$195 (-100%)
LoL: G2 NORD vs Kaufland Hangry Knights (BO1) - Prime League 1st Division Regular Season Kaufland Hangry Knights 24¢ 0¢ $195 $0 −$195 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Dplus KIA 43¢ 0¢ $600 $0 −$600 (-100%)
LoL: Winthrop University vs Supernova - Game 1 Winner Winthrop University 46¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs HANJIN BRION Challengers - Game 2 Winner HANJIN BRION Challengers 55¢ 0¢ $94 $0 −$94 (-100%)
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix - Game 2 Winner Barça eSports 47¢ 0¢ $600 $0 −$600 (-100%)
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming (BO3) - LCP Regular Season Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming 38¢ 0¢ $147 $0 −$147 (-100%)
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs LOUD 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Hanwha Life Esports 53¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster 71¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Bilibili Gaming 59¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $709 +$563 +79%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $704 +$182 +26%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $704 −$700 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $703 −$700 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $707 +$308 +44%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $717 +$2,620 +366%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $705 +$240 +34%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 12 $715 −$700 -98%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $308 −$300 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $709 +$541 +76%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $609 −$600 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $713 −$700 -98%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $705 +$227 +32%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $710 −$700 -99%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $505 +$276 +55%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $704 +$171 +24%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $605 −$600 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $1,207 +$269 +22%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $613 +$1,375 +224%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $609 +$552 +91%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $101 +$80 +79%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $202 +$73 +36%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $302 +$111 +37%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $204 +$422 +207%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $604 +$158 +26%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $604 +$177 +29%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $604 +$187 +31%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $706 +$266 +38%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $611 +$931 +152%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $712 +$849 +119%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $712 −$700 -98%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $612 −$600 -98%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $714 −$700 -98%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $609 −$600 -98%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $202 −$200 -99%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $613 −$600 -98%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $408 −$400 -98%
LoL: GOAL vs mCon esports (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 08 $603 +$111 +18%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Partizan Sangal (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss S Jun 08 $705 +$230 +33%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $707 +$323 +46%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 08 $609 −$15 -2%
LoL: RED Canids vs Leviatan Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $50 +$11 +22%
Will G2 Esports win LEC 2026 Spring? Jun 08 $252 +$108 +43%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 08 $305 +$332 +109%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 08 $604 +$196 +32%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $606 +$290 +48%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $706 +$253 +36%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $707 +$308 +44%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $610 +$714 +117%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $611 +$907 +149%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 99% +$17,937
world 0% −$131
other 0% −$175
politics 0% −$15
tech 0% −$36
culture 0% −$13
economics 0% −$20
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 59¢ $302 23m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Top Esports 52¢ $609 28m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 65¢ $606 1h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 57¢ $709 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 49¢ $711 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 49¢ $711 2h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 55¢ $709 13h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 80¢ $704 24h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 88¢ $703 25h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 79¢ $704 26h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 69¢ $707 28h
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C BUY WLGaming Esports 24¢ $102 41h
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C BUY WLGaming Esports 24¢ $102 41h
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C BUY WLGaming Esports 27¢ $102 41h
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C BUY WLGaming Esports 28¢ $102 41h
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C BUY WLGaming Esports 28¢ $102 41h
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C BUY WLGaming Esports 28¢ $102 41h
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C BUY WLGaming Esports 28¢ $102 41h
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY WLGaming Esports 21¢ $717 42h
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner BUY Misa Esports 74¢ $705 42h
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY WLGaming Esports 16¢ $308 43h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 56¢ $709 47h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 49¢ $609 2d
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOUD 37¢ $713 2d
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY LOS 52¢ $101 2d
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY LOS 53¢ $203 2d
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY LOS 53¢ $203 2d
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY LOS 54¢ $203 2d
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Partizan Sangal 73¢ $101 2d
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Partizan Sangal 73¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +0.4% -9.2% 57% 57% -11.4%
≤30d 248 +11.2% +0.6% 65% 63% -2.3%
≤90d 775 +9.2% -1.2% 62% 61% -2.8%
all 1026 +6.9% -3.3% 61% 59% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 59% -3.5%
10% -12.5% 54% -12.7%
15% -21.0% 43% -21.1%
20% -28.7% 32% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,474.94 · official $5,474.94 (match) · 1896 history records