Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T14:36:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CF
0xcfac…ceda
sports · 20 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$3 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses12 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day16.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 19 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 73¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner FUT Esports 82¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 48¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 51¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Spirit 70¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 59¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Vitality 71¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner T1 76¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $3 +$1 +45%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $1 $0 +27%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $1 $0 +47%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1 $0 +47%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $1 $0 +49%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 +$1 +54%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $3 +$1 +29%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $1 +$1 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +55%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2 +$1 +29%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $2 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 71¢ $1 33m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 76¢ $1 48m
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $4 1h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $1 1h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 78¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $1 2h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 78¢ $1 3h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 57¢ $1 3h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 74¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 82¢ $1 5h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 67¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 71¢ $1 19h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 70¢ $1 21h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $1 21h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $2 21h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 54¢ $1 22h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $1 22h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $1 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $1 23h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $1 24h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $3 26h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 84¢ $1 28h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 52¢ $1 29h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 76¢ $1 29h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 51¢ $1 30h
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner SELL LOUD 97¢ $4 40h
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY LOUD 83¢ $1 40h
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY LOUD 79¢ $1 40h
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY LOUD 64¢ $1 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -11.9% -20.3% 63% 58% -13.0%
≤30d 19 -11.9% -20.3% 63% 58% -13.0%
≤90d 19 -11.9% -20.3% 63% 58% -13.0%
all 19 -11.9% -20.3% 63% 58% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 58% -13.0%
10% -27.9% 58% -21.3%
15% -34.9% 37% -28.9%
20% -41.3% 16% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.34 (match) · 38 history records