Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:56:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcfa8…45e6 world 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$828 (-27%) realized −$829 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate34%21W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$245
7 days−$245
14 days−$245
30 days−$245
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 90% −$867
other 7% +$47
politics 2% −$3
crypto 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-33.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -6.4% -15.3% 50% 50% -36.7%
≤30d 4 -6.4% -15.3% 50% 50% -36.7%
≤90d 16 -28.0% -34.9% 25% 25% -38.0%
all 61 -26.0% -33.0% 34% 30% -35.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.0% 30% -35.4%
10% -39.4% 25% -41.6%
15% -45.3% 18% -47.2%
20% -50.7% 15% -52.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 81% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$23 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$829
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses21 / 40
Open positions3
Markets (closed)61 / 66
History coverage123d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $70 +$43 +62%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 19 $734 −$293 -40%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 05 $10 −$10 -100%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? Apr 05 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 03 $1 $0 +34%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 03 $346 +$45 +13%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 30 $35 −$10 -28%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Mar 30 $37 −$19 -53%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Mar 30 $587 −$139 -24%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Mar 29 $146 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Mar 29 $67 −$3 -4%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 4, 2026 (ET)? Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 26 $501 −$411 -82%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Mar 26 $55 −$22 -40%
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? Mar 05 $1 −$1 -65%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 02 $250 +$1 +0%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? Mar 02 $1 $0 +3%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $1 +$3 +255%
Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)? Feb 28 $1 +$3 +269%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 5, 2026 (ET)? Feb 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? Feb 27 $2 +$1 +64%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)? Feb 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? Feb 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 3, 2026 (ET)? Feb 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? Feb 27 $2 +$1 +65%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Feb 27 $1 $0 -6%
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 26 $2 $0 +6%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)? Feb 24 $2 $0 -24%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 25, 2026 (ET)? Feb 24 $2 −$1 -36%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)? Feb 23 $2 −$1 -46%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 22 $2 −$2 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 22 $2 −$2 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Feb 22 $1 $0 -17%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 22 $2 −$2 -100%
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Feb 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 23, 2026 (ET)? Feb 20 $1 $0 +38%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)? Feb 20 $2 $0 +21%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 19 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 19 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 19 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Feb 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Feb 19 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Feb 19 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Feb 19 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Feb 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 45m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 46m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 67¢ $5 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 67¢ $48 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 67¢ $15 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $71 20h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 20h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 20h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 20h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 58¢ $10 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $70 41h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06- BUY 18¢ $20 41h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $90 41h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $9 76d
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? SELL Yes 4¢ $9 76d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 78d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 55¢ $300 78d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 54¢ $50 78d
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 78d
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 78d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $1 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 78d
US forces enter Iran by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $391 78d
US forces enter Iran by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $346 82d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $17 82d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 64¢ $345 82d
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $17 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.51 · official $31.51 (match) · 203 history records