Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:30:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcfa7…3fce weather 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$270 (-18%) realized −$280 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate38%13W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day20.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 88% −$200
tech 8% −$75
crypto 2% −$19
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-34.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -27.2% -34.2% 38% 18% -29.8%
≤30d 34 -27.2% -34.2% 38% 18% -29.8%
≤90d 34 -27.2% -34.2% 38% 18% -29.8%
all 34 -27.2% -34.2% 38% 18% -29.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.2% 18% -29.8%
10% ← realistic here -40.5% 15% -36.5%
15% -46.2% 6% -42.7%
20% -51.5% 6% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -51% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$19 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized−$280
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses13 / 21
Open positions3
Markets (closed)34 / 37
History coverage4d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day20.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Yes 41¢ 43¢ $90 $94 +$4 (+4%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 17? No 92¢ 100¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 17? Yes 51¢ 99¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 −$2 -27%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? Jun 16 $10 −$2 -16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $145 −$145 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $38 −$22 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $142 +$45 +31%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 15 $42 −$41 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $41 +$2 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 16? Jun 15 $18 −$4 -23%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 16? Jun 15 $67 −$23 -35%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $21 −$3 -16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $171 −$27 -16%
SpaceX IPO: Open Up/Down on Second Day Jun 15 $31 +$18 +60%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 15 $103 +$23 +22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $40 +$2 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 15? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -20%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$6 +57%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $46 −$13 -28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 14? Jun 13 $103 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$7 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$2 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 59m
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? SELL Yes 26¢ $6 59m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? SELL No 85¢ $31 59m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $20 10h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 83¢ $30 10h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 11h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 41¢ $41 11h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $8 14h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 14h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 14h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 17? SELL No 85¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 0¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $23 14h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $23 14h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 79¢ $4 19h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $10 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 83¢ $40 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 82¢ $101 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 37¢ $42 37h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $43 37h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 66¢ $15 45h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 16? SELL No 67¢ $14 45h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $41 45h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? SELL No 69¢ $40 45h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $10 45h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 16? BUY No 83¢ $8 45h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 16? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 46h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 16? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.40 · official $125.40 (match) · 108 history records