Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:24:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CF 0xcfa7…f861 crypto 1934 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (346 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1,219 (-26%) realized +$647 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate56%832W / 663L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day346.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$635
7 days+$527
14 days+$647
30 days+$647
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,368
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (346 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1418 +17.0% +5.8% 54% 46% +4.3%
≤30d 1495 +20.0% +8.6% 56% 47% +6.6%
≤90d 1495 +20.0% +8.6% 56% 47% +6.6%
all 1495 +20.0% +8.6% 56% 47% +6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover346.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.6% 47% +6.6%
10% ← realistic here -1.8% 42% -3.6%
15% -11.3% 39% -12.9%
20% -20.0% 39% -21.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +63% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$647
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses832 / 663
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1495 / 1934
History coverage7d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day346.4
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1495 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Down 45¢ 68¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+50%)
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Down 82¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$3 -139%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $0 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 36m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 41m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 41m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 49m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 51m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 56m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $0 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.50 · official $1.58 (match) · 3500 history records