Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:31:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CF 0xcfa6…ecaa politics 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$100 (-0%) realized −$100 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate9%12W / 120L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$14
politics 33% −$11
sports 11% −$75
crypto 2% −$1
culture 2% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 87 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 132 -6.7% -15.6% 9% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 5% -9.9%
10% -23.7% 4% -18.5%
15% -31.0% 2% -26.4%
20% -37.8% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 62% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×4.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses12 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage130d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $225 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $26 $0 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $246 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $21 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $33 $0 -0%
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd Jun 11 $34 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $214 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $216 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $38 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 07 $21 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $180 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $208 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $200 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $169 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $160 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $171 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $163 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $226 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $811 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 19 $213 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 18 $159 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $158 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $201 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $393 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $195 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $170 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $446 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $218 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 11 $214 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $219 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $233 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $187 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $202 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $407 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $183 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $216 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $174 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 17 $176 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 17 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $227 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $162 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $441 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $430 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $175 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $203 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $234 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 1h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 1h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 19h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $26 32h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 38h
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 2d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 2d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $36 5d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $36 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $21 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $21 7d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 10d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 10d
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd SELL No 100¢ $34 10d
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd BUY No 100¢ $34 10d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $32 11d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 11d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 11d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 11d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 11d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 12d
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $21 14d
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $21 16d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 21d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 21d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 23d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $208 24d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $182 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.99 · official $22.99 (match) · 377 history records