Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:20:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CF 0xcfa5…35c6 crypto 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5,486 (-16%) realized −$5,481 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate74%31W / 11L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$811per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$114
7 days+$128
14 days−$10,238
30 days−$6,564
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 93% −$5,533
crypto 4% +$123
sports 3% −$279
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -7.7% -16.5% 71% 48% +1.2%
≤30d 37 -6.7% -15.5% 73% 49% -30.1%
≤90d 42 -4.2% -13.3% 74% 52% -24.4%
all 42 -4.2% -13.3% 74% 52% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 52% -24.4%
10% -21.6% 33% -31.6%
15% -29.2% 12% -38.2%
20% -36.1% 5% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$603) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$165 vs −$980 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$5,481
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses31 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage62d
Avg bet$811
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Up 85¢ 74¢ $40 $35 −$5 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 21 $62 +$27 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $41 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 20 $41 +$11 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $41 +$16 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $41 +$31 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $41 +$10 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $41 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $41 +$27 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $41 +$10 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$11 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12PM ET Jun 19 $58 +$12 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $40 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $41 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $41 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $41 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $42 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $42 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 18 $44 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 18 $46 −$5 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $82 −$40 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$14 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$18 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $55 +$6 +10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $10,452 −$10,400 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $4,020 +$33 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4,869 +$1,010 +21%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $3,889 +$729 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $4,012 +$1,917 +48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $603 +$19 +3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 20 $1,008 −$279 -28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 15 $1,492 +$481 +32%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 07 $1,094 +$204 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $1,094 +$208 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $1,000 +$265 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $41 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $46 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $41 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $41 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $52 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $41 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $44 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $40 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $57 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $41 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $73 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $41 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $50 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $41 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $53 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $41 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $68 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $41 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $50 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $41 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $16 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $19 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $16 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $51 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.59 · official $41.65 · 100 history records