Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:28:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CF 0xcfa3…5dde sports 204 markets active 0h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$104 (-2%) realized −$86 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate56%108W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$87
7 days−$13
14 days+$11
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$156
other 8% +$87
world 0% −$11
crypto 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -2.4% -11.7% 43% 42% -10.6%
≤30d 138 +11.2% +0.6% 46% 46% -11.9%
≤90d 182 +9.0% -1.4% 55% 38% -11.2%
all 194 +8.8% -1.6% 56% 39% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.6% 39% -10.9%
10% -11.0% 34% -19.4%
15% -19.6% 30% -27.2%
20% -27.5% 26% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized−$86
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses108 / 86
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions6
Markets (closed)194 / 204
History coverage100d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 194 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Germany 86¢ 74¢ $88 $76 −$12 (-13%)
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 79¢ 92¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+16%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Netherlands 60¢ 58¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 29 $1 +$1 +116%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $183 +$26 +14%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 29 $1 $0 -41%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $6 +$4 +70%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $1 +$8 +786%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $8 +$3 +34%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 29 $5 +$2 +42%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $3 −$3 -99%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $2 +$11 +550%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $10 +$3 +32%
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $5 +$4 +83%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 28 $3 +$5 +172%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $90 +$10 +11%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $88 +$19 +21%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $88 +$13 +14%
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $23 +$27 +114%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $88 +$12 +14%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $33 +$2 +6%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $63 −$62 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $50 +$8 +16%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 +$2 +48%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $75 −$74 -99%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $17 +$12 +67%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $12 +$8 +62%
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $2 −$1 -64%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $3 −$3 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $7 +$6 +86%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $7 −$7 -99%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 Mexico? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 Mexico? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $3 +$2 +79%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $8 4m
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 8m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $208 34m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $82 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 86¢ $88 8h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 13h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3 13h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 13h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 74¢ $8 13h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will Netherlands BUY 16¢ $2 18h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Japan 70¢ $5 19h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 60¢ $5 19h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 50¢ $5 19h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 32h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 32h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 32h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $5 32h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 75¢ $10 32h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $90 42h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $107 42h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $3 42h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 82¢ $88 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.41 · official $91.45 · 373 history records