Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:31:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcfa3…c48e weather 530 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 5d only
✗ bot/MM pace (585 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$287 (+30%) realized +$292 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +75% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +35% what you keep after slip
Net edge+35%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%273W / 473L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day584.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (585 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+58.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 746 +75.0% +58.3% 37% 35% -3.3%
≤30d 746 +75.0% +58.3% 37% 35% -3.3%
≤90d 746 +75.0% +58.3% 37% 35% -3.3%
all 746 +75.0% +58.3% 37% 35% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover584.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +58.3% 35% -3.3%
10% ← realistic here +43.1% 33% -12.5%
15% +29.3% 32% -21.0%
20% +16.6% 30% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +75% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +85% → late +65% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$292
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses273 / 473
Open positions50
Markets (closed)746 / 530
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day584.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 50 History 746 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 18? Yes 3¢ 7¢ $2 $6 +$3 (+141%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18? Yes 5¢ 7¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+49%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 17? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+87%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? Yes 6¢ 98¢ $0 $4 +$3 (+1526%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 17? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+220%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 18? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-29%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? Yes 5¢ 7¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 18? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $1 $2 +$2 (+172%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 17? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+45%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $0 $2 +$1 (+300%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 18? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+75%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 17? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 18? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-71%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 18? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 18? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 18? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+126%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 18? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+51%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 18? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+92%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 17? Yes 6¢ 24¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+313%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 17? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 17? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 17? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+142%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 450 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 11? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 7? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 7? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 6? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 9? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 9? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 7? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on May 29? Jun 17 $0 $0 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 9? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 29? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 10? Jun 17 $0 +$2 +576%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 7? Jun 17 $1 $0 -40%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 4? Jun 17 $0 $0 +763%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 10? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 10? Jun 17 $1 $0 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 10? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 5? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 9? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on May 31? Jun 17 $0 −$2 -400%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 9? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 5? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 12? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 29? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -140%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 11? Jun 17 $1 +$4 +435%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 3? Jun 17 $0 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 11? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +130%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 4? Jun 17 $0 −$1 -466%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 9? Jun 17 $1 $0 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on May 30? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 4? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 9? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 17 $0 $0 +100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 17 $0 $0 +224%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 9? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 11? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 17 $1 $0 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? Jun 17 $0 +$2 +528%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 7? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 10? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 8? Jun 17 $0 −$1 -683%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 9? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 30? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 6? Jun 17 $0 $0 +123%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 29? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 4? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on May 31? Jun 17 $0 $0 -5306%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on May 30? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 7? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 17? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 12m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 17? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 12m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 17? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 12m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 29m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 29m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 18? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 30m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June SELL Yes 8¢ $1 32m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 35m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 35m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 35m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 45m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 47m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 17 BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 17 BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 18? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 18? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June SELL Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June SELL Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 17? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 17? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 17? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 17? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 17? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 17? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 17? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.91 · official $52.17 (match) · 3500 history records