Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:23:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CF
0xcf9e…518e
world · 227 markets active 1h ago
6.0score
+$28,926 +16%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$20,952 · open +$7,974
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$35,662
Realized+$20,952
Unrealized+$7,974
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses121 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions50
Markets (closed)177 / 227
History coverage650d
Avg bet$792
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 50 History 177 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$166
14 days+$784
30 days+$784
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? No 46¢ 96¢ $2,910 $6,105 +$3,195 (+110%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? No 71¢ 72¢ $3,355 $3,433 +$78 (+2%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 58¢ 60¢ $3,243 $3,390 +$147 (+5%)
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? No 51¢ 67¢ $2,547 $3,321 +$774 (+30%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? No 48¢ 97¢ $1,608 $3,231 +$1,623 (+101%)
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30? No 71¢ 99¢ $1,964 $2,741 +$777 (+40%)
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30? No 69¢ 99¢ $1,500 $2,153 +$653 (+44%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score No 67¢ 66¢ $2,009 $1,956 −$53 (-3%)
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? No 75¢ 80¢ $1,800 $1,943 +$143 (+8%)
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30? No 76¢ 99¢ $913 $1,186 +$273 (+30%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score No 70¢ 68¢ $1,001 $965 −$36 (-4%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 66¢ $1,000 $964 −$36 (-4%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 59¢ 63¢ $753 $806 +$53 (+7%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 Under 40¢ 40¢ $600 $600 +$0 (+0%)
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? No 63¢ 85¢ $358 $485 +$126 (+35%)
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? No 76¢ 84¢ $400 $442 +$42 (+11%)
Will Russia enter Serhiivka by July 31? No 67¢ 90¢ $199 $268 +$68 (+34%)
Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026? No 69¢ 66¢ $257 $245 −$12 (-5%)
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? No 85¢ 84¢ $246 $241 −$4 (-2%)
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No 83¢ 97¢ $186 $218 +$31 (+17%)
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? No 64¢ 84¢ $161 $212 +$51 (+31%)
Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by December 31, 2026? No 75¢ 70¢ $190 $176 −$14 (-7%)
Will Russia enter Myrne by July 31, 2026? No 48¢ 80¢ $96 $162 +$66 (+68%)
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31? No 64¢ 66¢ $132 $136 +$4 (+3%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $1,015 −$51 -5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,009 +$217 +22%
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by May 31? Jun 01 $100 +$14 +14%
Will Russia enter Serhiivka by May 31? Jun 01 $159 +$68 +43%
Will Russia capture Toretske by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $100 +$56 +56%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $210 +$184 +88%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $420 +$295 +70%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by April 30, 2026? May 03 $536 +$286 +53%
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 17? Apr 15 $200 +$38 +19%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by March 31, 2026? Apr 03 $63 +$13 +21%
Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by March 31, 2026? Apr 03 $500 +$214 +43%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? Apr 03 $630 +$3,069 +487%
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by March 31? Apr 03 $488 +$333 +68%
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by March 31, 2026? Apr 03 $1,532 +$1,554 +102%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by June 30? Mar 12 $554 −$554 -100%
Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 15, 2026? Mar 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026? Mar 12 $754 −$754 -100%
Will Russia enter Rizdvianka by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $100 +$30 +30%
Will Russia enter Rizdvianka by March 31, 2026? Mar 01 $119 −$119 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by February 28? Feb 28 $154 +$112 +73%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28? Feb 27 $790 +$1,491 +189%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by February 28? Feb 06 $733 +$901 +123%
Will Russia capture Lyman by January 31, 2026? Feb 04 $192 +$107 +56%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31? Feb 04 $388 +$275 +71%
Will Russia enter Zaliznychne by January 31? Feb 04 $766 +$878 +115%
Will Russia enter Ternuvate by February 28? Jan 30 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31? Jan 01 $1,362 +$878 +64%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31? Jan 01 $12,278 +$10,431 +85%
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31? Dec 17 $2,596 +$1,254 +48%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31? Dec 16 $363 −$363 -100%
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by January 31? Dec 15 $47 −$14 -29%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31? Dec 15 $6,906 −$6,906 -100%
Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31? Dec 07 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31? Dec 06 $11 +$3 +23%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Dec 06 $5 +$1 +13%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Dec 06 $10 +$4 +37%
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? Dec 06 $20 +$7 +36%
Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by December 31? Dec 06 $55 +$16 +29%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30? Dec 01 $1,275 +$1,424 +112%
Will Russia capture Rodynske by November 30? Nov 30 $631 +$541 +86%
Will Russia recapture territory in Vilne by November 30? Nov 30 $835 +$956 +114%
Will Russia recapture territory in Kucheriv Yar by November 30? Nov 30 $587 +$666 +114%
Will Russia capture Shakhove by November 30? Nov 30 $708 +$738 +104%
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by December 31? Nov 24 $247 −$241 -97%
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by November 30? Nov 24 $1,062 −$839 -79%
Will Russia capture Siversk by November 30? Nov 22 $557 +$201 +36%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by November 30? Nov 16 $87 +$20 +23%
Will Russia capture Lyman by November 30? Nov 16 $315 +$132 +42%
Nothing Ever Happens: Military Edition Nov 16 $10 +$1 +11%
US national Ethereum reserve in 2025? Nov 15 $10 +$4 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 89% +$33,172
crypto 3% −$3,686
other 3% +$1,371
sports 2% −$161
politics 2% −$1,207
tech 0% −$550
economics 0% −$12
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $178 38m
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY No 80¢ $1 57m
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 58m
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 1h
Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag BUY Yes 82¢ $1 1h
WIll Lamine Yamal play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Will South Korea be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup BUY Yes 38¢ $1 1h
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro BUY Yes 59¢ $1 1h
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes 60¢ $1 1h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 61¢ $1 1h
Will Lamine Yamal record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY Yes 79¢ $1 1h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 1h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $1 1h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 40¢ $407 1h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 40¢ $204 1h
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 2h
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $1,000 7h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $100 12h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $100 12h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $126 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +8.2% -2.1% 50% 50% -2.1%
≤30d 7 +41.1% +27.7% 86% 86% +14.0%
≤90d 14 +77.2% +60.3% 93% 93% +72.2%
all 177 +10.5% -0.1% 68% 57% +3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.1% 57% +3.3%
10% -9.6% 45% -6.6%
15% -18.4% 33% -15.6%
20% -26.4% 24% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35,661.89 · official $35,661.91 (match) · 1832 history records