Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:46:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CF 0xcf9e…81a1 crypto 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$216 (+8%) realized +$217 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate59%49W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$99
7 days−$99
14 days−$99
30 days+$223
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% +$189
politics 9% +$25
sports 8% +$30
other 8% −$37
world 1% +$4
culture 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -59.3% -63.2% 33% 17% -47.7%
≤30d 56 +9.6% -0.9% 57% 55% +0.7%
≤90d 60 +6.6% -3.6% 57% 55% +1.0%
all 83 +1.8% -7.9% 59% 53% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 53% -1.5%
10% -16.7% 51% -10.9%
15% -24.7% 45% -19.5%
20% -32.1% 40% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$27 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized+$217
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses49 / 34
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)83 / 88
History coverage138d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No 48¢ 57¢ $48 $57 +$9 (+20%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 82¢ 86¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+4%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 25¢ 15¢ $9 $5 −$3 (-40%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 20¢ 2¢ $20 $2 −$19 (-93%)
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $60 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $52 +$18 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 28 $40 +$40 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 28 $40 +$40 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 28 $40 +$40 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 27 $34 +$36 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 27 $34 +$36 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 27 $34 +$36 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 27 $34 +$36 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 27 $34 +$36 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 27 $34 +$36 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 27 $34 +$36 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 27 $34 +$36 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 27 $34 +$36 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 27 $34 +$36 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 27 $34 +$36 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 27 $34 +$36 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 27 $34 +$36 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 27 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 27 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 27 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 27 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 27 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 27 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 27 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 27 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 27 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 26 $35 +$35 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 26 $35 +$35 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 26 $35 +$35 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 26 $35 +$35 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 26 $35 +$35 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 26 $35 +$35 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 26 $35 +$35 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 26 $35 +$35 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 26 $35 +$35 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 26 $35 +$35 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 26 $35 +$35 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 26 $35 +$35 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 26 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 26 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 26 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 26 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 26 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 26 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 26 $35 −$35 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $21 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 74¢ $52 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $9 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $20 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $14 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $15 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $40 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.87 · official $82.87 (match) · 396 history records