Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:15:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf9c…bae2 other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$64 (-64%) realized −$36 · open −$28
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$54
crypto 13% −$10
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 21 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 21 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 21 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$2 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$36
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 21
Open positions16
Markets (closed)21 / 37
History coverage4d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 23? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -93%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 23? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 23? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -93%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes $5 2h
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes $11 2h
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes $11 2h
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes $11 2h
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes $12 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Stripe have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will ByteDance have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.50 · official $30.50 (match) · 45 history records