Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:34:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CF 0xcf9c…7872 sports 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$54 (+19%) realized +$58 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%10W / 21L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$15
14 days+$36
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% +$83
crypto 38% $0
other 20% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 31 +28.6% +16.3% 32% 32% +18.2%
≤90d 31 +28.6% +16.3% 32% 32% +18.2%
all 31 +28.6% +16.3% 32% 32% +18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.3% 32% +18.2%
10% +5.2% 32% +6.9%
15% -5.0% 32% -3.4%
20% -14.3% 32% -12.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +102% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$5 · ×3.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$58
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses10 / 21
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage15d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $5 +$4 +86%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $5 +$10 +188%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$4 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 +$8 +152%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$71 +1374%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 +$30 +291%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$11 +206%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 +$26 +503%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 6d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 6d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain $5 7d
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 17¢ $5 7d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 41¢ $5 7d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $5 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 8d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 34¢ $5 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 9d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 9d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 10d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 10d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 19¢ $5 11d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 11d
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) BUY Portugal 14¢ $5 11d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 28¢ $5 11d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 13d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $5 13d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $5 13d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 19¢ $10 13d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 14d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 25¢ $10 14d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 14d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 10¢ $5 14d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 16¢ $5 14d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.45 · official $101.45 (match) · 45 history records