Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:10:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CF
0xcf9b…bef0
politics · 114 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$12 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$9 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$16
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses7 / 106
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)113 / 114
History coverage109d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 1 History 113 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Hornets vs. Nets Nets 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Lakers Timberwolves 55¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Jazz vs. Bucks Jazz 23¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Wizards vs. Warriors Wizards 14¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
76ers vs. Jazz Jazz 34¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Warriors vs. Mavericks Mavericks 47¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Knicks Knicks 39¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $23 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $16 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $69 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $9 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $283 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $70 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $90 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $205 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $161 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $87 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $79 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $243 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $91 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $78 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $101 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $98 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $154 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $171 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 12 $82 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $82 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $87 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $89 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $95 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $85 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $185 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $98 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $202 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $72 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $29 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $77 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $74 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $101 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $72 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $73 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $215 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $79 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $74 $0 -0%
Will Reilly Opelka win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 30 $101 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $87 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $78 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $173 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $81 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $209 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $78 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $95 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $97 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $102 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $176 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $78 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 43% −$5
politics 41% −$7
sports 9% +$22
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $16 1h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 1h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 7h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $16 7h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 15h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 3d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 4d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 6d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $17 6d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 7d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 7d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 8d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $17 8d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $17 8d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $101 19d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $101 20d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $70 21d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $70 22d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $90 22d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $90 22d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $99 22d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $99 23d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $82 23d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $82 24d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $87 24d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $87 24d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $79 25d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $79 26d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $90 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 104 -2.2% -11.5% 3% 2% -9.6%
all 113 -1.2% -10.6% 6% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 5% -9.4%
10% -19.2% 5% -18.1%
15% -27.0% 5% -26.0%
20% -34.1% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.99 · official $15.99 (match) · 316 history records