Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:40:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CF 0xcf9b…2013 sports 148 markets active 0h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$445 (-3%) realized −$456 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%56W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$326est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days−$79
14 days−$79
30 days−$296
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$553
other 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -1.9% -11.2% 45% 45% -19.8%
≤30d 25 -11.0% -19.5% 40% 40% -34.3%
≤90d 147 +4.7% -5.3% 38% 38% -12.7%
all 147 +4.7% -5.3% 38% 38% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 38% -12.7%
10% -14.4% 37% -21.1%
15% -22.6% 36% -28.7%
20% -30.2% 36% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$176 vs −$115 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$456
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses56 / 91
Est. fees paid−$326
Open positions1
Markets (closed)147 / 148
History coverage76d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 44¢ 50¢ $90 $101 +$11 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $73 +$19 +26%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $42 +$31 +73%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $35 +$7 +21%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $20 +$15 +76%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $110 −$108 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $19 −$19 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $40 −$39 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 +$70 +238%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $28 +$50 +180%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $18 +$44 +237%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $22 −$22 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $35 +$43 +123%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $16 −$16 -98%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) Jun 15 $30 +$26 +88%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $48 −$47 -98%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $64 −$63 -98%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs REBORN (BO5) - VCL EMEA: Playoffs May 28 $64 −$63 -98%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North America: St May 26 $66 −$64 -98%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL North A May 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Playoffs May 26 $64 +$104 +162%
Valorant: REBORN vs Joblife (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Playoffs May 26 $97 −$94 -98%
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner May 15 $55 −$55 -99%
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner May 15 $31 +$24 +77%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playo May 14 $49 −$48 -98%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $99 −$97 -98%
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 10 $58 −$57 -98%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 10 $61 −$60 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO5) - VCT China Playoffs May 10 $102 +$116 +114%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs DRX - Map 2 Winner May 10 $69 −$68 -98%
Valorant: T1 vs Rex Regum Qeon (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 10 $77 −$75 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $256 −$250 -98%
Valorant: Team Envy vs MIBR - Map 2 Winner May 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Valorant: Team Envy vs MIBR - Map 1 Winner May 10 $37 +$120 +324%
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Gentle Mates - Map 2 Winner May 09 $167 +$251 +150%
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 09 $51 −$50 -97%
Valorant: DRX vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 09 $64 +$102 +158%
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs DetonatioN FocusMe (BO3) - VCT Pacific Pla May 09 $71 +$185 +258%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO5) - VCT China Playoff May 09 $45 −$44 -98%
Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs Evil Geniuses (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Gr May 09 $168 +$27 +16%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 08 $113 −$111 -98%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 08 $82 +$199 +244%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 05 $22 −$22 -98%
Valorant: Mandatory vs WIP Esports (BO5) - VCL France: Revolution Stag May 05 $50 −$49 -98%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Division One (BO3) - VCL North Amer May 04 $145 −$143 -98%
Valorant: WIP Esports vs F9 EICAR (BO3) - VCL France: Revolution Stage May 04 $153 −$150 -98%
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs Misa Esports (BO5) - VCL Türkiye: Birlik May 04 $108 −$106 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $92 12m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 79¢ $73 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 57¢ $42 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 82¢ $35 4h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 100¢ $35 4h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $20 8h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 10h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 12h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 22¢ $19 12h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 25¢ $10 12h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 31¢ $19 13h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 43¢ $29 13h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 34¢ $51 14h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 18¢ $10 14h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 39¢ $30 14h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 28h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 28h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 29h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $28 30h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 42¢ $22 32h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $18 34h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Vitality 99¢ $79 34h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 44¢ $35 35h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 10¢ $5 36h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 29¢ $16 37h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) SELL XLG Gaming 99¢ $57 37h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) BUY XLG Gaming 52¢ $30 38h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 40¢ $36 39h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 30¢ $48 4d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Heretics 34¢ $64 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.35 · official $101.35 (match) · 299 history records