Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:48:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf99…6a48 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$180 (-14%) realized −$174 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%6W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$596now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$113
7 days−$196
14 days−$198
30 days−$198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$183
crypto 4% −$1
sports 3% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -17.6% -25.5% 38% 38% -35.4%
≤30d 17 -22.5% -29.9% 35% 35% -35.5%
≤90d 17 -22.5% -29.9% 35% 35% -35.5%
all 17 -22.5% -29.9% 35% 35% -35.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.9% 35% -35.5%
10% -36.6% 18% -41.7%
15% -42.7% 18% -47.3%
20% -48.3% 18% -52.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$22 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$596
Realized−$174
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses6 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions13
Markets (closed)17 / 30
History coverage7d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 76¢ $247 $250 +$3 (+1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan finish last in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 80¢ 78¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 24 $164 −$84 -51%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 24 $61 −$14 -23%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $21 −$5 -26%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $33 −$12 -36%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 22 $21 −$4 -19%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $95 +$13 +14%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 22 $151 −$73 -48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$10 -32%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $40 −$19 -48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$11 +73%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$2 -61%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 +$9 +57%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan finish last in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou BUY Yes 80¢ $10 39m
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 44m
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 51m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 53m
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 53m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 1h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 18¢ $80 6h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 25¢ $47 6h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 11¢ $15 6h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 76¢ $151 9h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 20¢ $31 9h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 20h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $12 20h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 36¢ $20 44h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 13¢ $19 44h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 44¢ $32 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes $17 2d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $21 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 2d
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 10¢ $59 2d
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 31¢ $39 2d
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 12¢ $40 2d
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 10¢ $2 2d
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 31¢ $39 2d
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 27¢ $20 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 47¢ $21 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $595.83 · official $595.83 (match) · 77 history records