Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:42:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CF 0xcf96…6dcd crypto 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 516d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate85%44W / 8L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% +$1
other 20% $0
sports 12% $0
tech 9% $0
politics 8% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 52 +0.2% -9.4% 85% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.32 per $1 lost it wins $2.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

516d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses44 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage516d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? Jun 03 $52 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Apr 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? Apr 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? Mar 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? Mar 03 $54 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? Feb 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in January? Feb 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? Jan 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in December? Jan 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? Dec 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in October? Nov 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in October? Nov 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? Oct 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? Oct 03 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August? Sep 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Sep 01 $38 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? Aug 02 $63 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in June? Jul 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? Jul 01 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.40 in May? Jun 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 02 $4 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? May 02 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 02 $10 $0 +1%
Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before May? May 02 $11 $0 +1%
Will Xi Jinping talk to Trump before May? May 02 $13 $0 +0%
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? May 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Greens win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentar Apr 11 $37 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in his first 100 days? Apr 10 $34 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in March? Apr 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in March? Apr 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Apr 02 $11 $0 +3%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Clint Capela lead the NBA in Rebounds? Mar 25 $163 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Mar 21 $45 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 06 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $70 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $18 28d
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? BUY No 100¢ $52 31d
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? BUY No 100¢ $5 62d
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? BUY No 100¢ $32 62d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $32 62d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? BUY No 100¢ $5 91d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $32 91d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $32 93d
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $15 121d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? BUY No 100¢ $54 122d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 149d
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? BUY No 100¢ $19 149d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in January? BUY No 100¢ $31 150d
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 180d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in December? BUY No 100¢ $23 181d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 100¢ $38 182d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 211d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? BUY No 100¢ $33 211d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $10 241d
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in October? BUY No 100¢ $14 241d
Will Solana reach $300 in October? BUY No 100¢ $39 243d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $8 272d
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? BUY No 100¢ $25 272d
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? BUY No 100¢ $29 273d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? BUY No 100¢ $9 301d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? BUY No 100¢ $29 302d
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August? BUY No 100¢ $30 302d
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? BUY No 100¢ $9 332d
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? BUY No 100¢ $24 333d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.74 · official $69.74 (match) · 117 history records