Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:10:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf94…9d1e politics 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate13%7W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% −$4
sports 31% −$2
other 14% −$2
crypto 7% $0
world 7% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -7.9% -16.7% 0% 0% -9.9%
all 55 -7.7% -16.5% 13% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 2% -9.7%
10% -24.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -31.8% 0% -26.3%
20% -38.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses7 / 48
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage225d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $86 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $83 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $82 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $2 −$1 -31%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $82 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 05 $86 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Feb 28 $85 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 14? Feb 15 $84 $0 +0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 14 $1 $0 -44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 11? Feb 12 $85 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Feb 08 $86 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 05 $85 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 05 $2 $0 -9%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 31 $84 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 27 $88 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 24 $85 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $85 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 15 $85 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 14 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 12 $264 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 07 $87 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 04 $87 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 02 $82 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 02 $2 $0 -12%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 30 $2 $0 -11%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 30 $1 $0 -25%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 29 $83 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 28 $3 $0 -14%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 27 $86 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 26 $94 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 26 $1 $0 -50%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 26 $87 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 25 $1 $0 -20%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 24 $1 $0 -50%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 24 $86 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 23 $88 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 21 $1 $0 -17%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 21 $87 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 19 $89 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 17 $1 $0 -14%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 17 $179 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $78 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 15 $2 $0 +17%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 15 $5 −$1 -21%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? Dec 15 $75 $0 +0%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 11 $89 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 06 $90 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 04 $90 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 30 $93 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $86 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $86 5d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $83 7d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $83 18d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $82 27d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $82 30d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 38d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 102d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $82 102d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $82 103d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 103d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 106d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $86 106d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $86 110d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $85 112d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $85 116d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 14? BUY No 100¢ $84 126d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 126d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 11? BUY No 100¢ $85 128d
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $86 133d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 133d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 135d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $85 139d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 139d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 140d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 140d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $84 140d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $84 143d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 143d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.91 · official $0.91 (match) · 204 history records