Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:40:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CF
0xcf8d…7661
other · 53 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$39 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$39 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses13 / 40
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage604d
Avg bet$339
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 0 History 53 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 04 $13 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $11 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $21 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $13 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $12 $0 -0%
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 18 $60 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 18 $57 $0 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers May 18 $7 +$9 +114%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 13 $2 $0 -10%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $54 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $108 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $51 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $54 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Apr 27 $51 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $55 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Apr 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $54 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 11 $21 +$1 +5%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 10 $9 +$5 +50%
Oilers vs. Utah Apr 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Bucks vs. Nets Apr 08 $5 +$6 +124%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 08 $9 +$5 +59%
Red Wings vs. Flyers Apr 06 $8 +$8 +100%
Blues vs. Kings Apr 02 $13 −$13 -100%
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 01 $42 $0 +1%
Sabres vs. Ducks Mar 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $170 in February? Mar 05 $80 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 13 $80 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 05 $13,538 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 08 $2 $0 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $29 −$1 -3%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 01 $28 $0 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $6 $0 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 02 $9 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $261 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 75% −$14
politics 17% −$11
other 4% $0
sports 1% −$15
crypto 1% +$1
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $9 1h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 7h
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $14 37h
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $14 38h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 46h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 3d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $13 8d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $13 8d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $10 9d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 9d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $13 13d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 13d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 16d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $16 16d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 19d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 19d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $27 19d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 20d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 20d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 21d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 21d
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $60 24d
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $60 24d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $57 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 +6.6% -3.5% 24% 6% -7.1%
≤90d 40 +1.0% -8.6% 25% 12% -10.6%
all 53 +0.5% -9.1% 25% 9% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 9% -9.7%
10% -17.8% 9% -18.4%
15% -25.7% 9% -26.2%
20% -33.0% 8% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 265 history records