Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:06:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf8c…8f62 crypto 847 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (94 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$279 (-4%) realized −$279 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate53%450W / 397L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day94.0pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$293
14 days−$466
30 days−$321
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$234
other 3% −$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (94 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 608 -4.4% -13.5% 59% 29% -13.7%
≤30d 847 -8.8% -17.5% 53% 32% -13.5%
≤90d 847 -8.8% -17.5% 53% 32% -13.5%
all 847 -8.8% -17.5% 53% 32% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover94.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 32% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 27% -21.8%
15% -32.6% 27% -29.4%
20% -39.2% 25% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$279
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses450 / 397
Open positions0
Markets (closed)847 / 847
History coverage14d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day94.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 847 Trades
no open positions (263 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$2 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 23 $30 −$16 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$2 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$2 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$5 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$3 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$3 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$4 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$3 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 23 $30 −$30 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$2 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$5 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $30 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $30 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $30 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $30 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $15 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $30 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $30 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1816 history records