Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:44:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CF 0xcf8b…285d other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$105 (+12%) realized +$170 · open −$65
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate56%19W / 15L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit16%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days+$35
14 days+$104
30 days+$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$27
crypto 2% +$2
world 1% −$6
sports 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -19.0% -26.7% 52% 48% -2.4%
≤30d 34 +3.5% -6.3% 56% 53% +4.9%
≤90d 34 +3.5% -6.3% 56% 53% +4.9%
all 34 +3.5% -6.3% 56% 53% +4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 53% +4.9%
10% -15.3% 38% -5.1%
15% -23.5% 32% -14.3%
20% -31.0% 24% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$10 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized+$170
Unrealized−$65
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses19 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)34 / 38
History coverage11d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 61¢ 38¢ $170 $105 −$65 (-38%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $35 +$7 +19%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $25 −$25 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$6 +32%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $47 +$56 +119%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$20 +39%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 +$2 +238%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6 +$1 +18%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 +$15 +29%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +58%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$11 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $32 +$16 +48%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +227%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$15 +473%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$24 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND BUY 25¢ $10 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 10h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $15 35h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 35h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 91¢ $27 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $102 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $15 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $21 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 81¢ $12 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.79 · official $122.37 · 90 history records