Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:15:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CF
0xcf8b…bff8
sports · 458 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$631 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$517 · open +$114
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$922
Realized+$517
Unrealized+$114
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses228 / 221
Est. fees paid−$206
Open positions9
Markets (closed)449 / 458
History coverage278d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 9 History 449 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$270
7 days+$220
14 days−$2,810
30 days−$2,331
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 36¢ 81¢ $125 $285 +$159 (+127%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 84¢ $131 $135 +$4 (+3%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 42¢ $134 $119 −$15 (-11%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $108 $111 +$2 (+2%)
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 44¢ 44¢ $79 $80 +$1 (+1%)
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 38¢ $78 $72 −$6 (-7%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 32¢ $67 $68 +$1 (+2%)
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $49 $27 −$22 (-46%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 14¢ 10¢ $36 $26 −$10 (-29%)
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Marcos Giron 28¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Marton Fucsovics 27¢ 0¢ $74 $0 −$74 (-100%)
Centurion 2: Arda Azkara vs Khololwam Montsi Arda Azkara 47¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Alejandro Tabilo 37¢ 0¢ $135 $0 −$135 (-100%)
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Pierre-Hugues Herbert 40¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $35 +$95 +270%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $75 +$175 +233%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $74 −$74 -100%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $200 +$25 +13%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 10 $99 −$99 -100%
Libema Open: Jaume Munar vs Martin Damm Jun 09 $140 −$2 -2%
Stuttgart Open: Gauthier Onclin vs Fabian Marozsan Jun 08 $70 +$115 +163%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $54 −$54 -100%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane Jun 08 $45 +$40 +90%
Centurion 2: Arda Azkara vs Khololwam Montsi Jun 04 $76 −$75 -98%
Birmingham: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Aleksandar Vukic Jun 02 $107 +$130 +122%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo May 31 $135 −$135 -100%
Will Tromsø IL win on 2026-05-16? May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Molde FK win on 2026-05-25? May 31 $19 −$19 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Jiri Lehecka May 31 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Tromsø IL win on 2026-05-25? May 31 $64 −$64 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Vit Kopriva May 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Bordeaux: Benjamin Bonzi vs Tallon Griekspoor May 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Sonego vs Ignacio Buse May 31 $48 −$48 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Cameron Norrie vs Adolfo Vallejo May 31 $70 −$70 -100%
Bordeaux: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 31 $80 −$80 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Adam Walton May 31 $83 −$83 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Tallon Griekspoor vs Matteo Arnaldi May 31 $75 −$75 -100%
Geneva Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Clement Tabur May 31 $51 −$51 -100%
Geneva Open: Valentin Royer vs Francisco Comesana May 31 $59 −$59 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Corentin Moutet May 31 $72 −$72 -100%
Aix en Provence: Ignacio Buse vs Francisco Comesana May 31 $80 −$80 -100%
Bordeaux: Titouan Droguet vs Jacob Fearnley May 31 $70 −$70 -100%
Cagliari: Matteo Arnaldi vs Nuno Borges May 31 $86 −$86 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Arnaldi May 31 $150 −$150 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Jakub Mensik vs Jan-Lennard Struff May 31 $74 −$74 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Eliot Spizzirri vs Frances Tiafoe May 31 $27 −$27 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Christ May 31 $115 −$115 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karen Khachanov vs Botic van de Zandschul May 31 $132 −$132 -100%
Geneva Open: Raul Brancaccio vs Stan Wawrinka May 31 $121 −$121 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry May 31 $121 −$121 -100%
Bordeaux: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Quentin Halys May 31 $134 −$134 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $98 −$98 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann May 31 $133 −$133 -100%
Madrid Open: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev May 31 $79 −$79 -100%
Bordeaux: Sho Shimabukuro vs Quentin Halys May 31 $92 −$92 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jacob Fearnley vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 31 $79 −$79 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrey Rublev vs Miomir Kecmanovic May 31 $115 −$115 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Hamad Medjedovic vs Yannick Hanfmann May 31 $140 −$140 -100%
Geneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Alexander Bublik May 31 $144 −$144 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Jaume Munar May 31 $217 −$217 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton May 28 $76 $0 -0%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic May 27 $73 +$76 +104%
Roland Garros ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Quentin Halys May 27 $6 +$10 +150%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Jan-Lennard Struff May 26 $66 +$234 +354%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 85% +$978
other 13% −$87
politics 1% −$61
crypto 1% −$115
culture 1% −$113
world 0% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 44¢ $81 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 18h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 18h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 18h
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 30¢ $75 2d
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Marton Fucsovics 27¢ $74 2d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 28¢ $86 2d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 28¢ $4 2d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 28¢ $0 2d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 28¢ $0 2d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 28¢ $0 2d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 28¢ $0 3d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 28¢ $2 3d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 28¢ $0 3d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 28¢ $1 3d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 28¢ $1 3d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 28¢ $0 3d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 28¢ $0 3d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 28¢ $2 3d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 28¢ $0 3d
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tallon Griekspoor 60¢ $135 3d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $108 3d
Libema Open: Jaume Munar vs Martin Damm SELL Jaume Munar 49¢ $137 3d
Libema Open: Jaume Munar vs Martin Damm BUY Jaume Munar 47¢ $21 4d
Libema Open: Jaume Munar vs Martin Damm BUY Jaume Munar 47¢ $4 4d
Libema Open: Jaume Munar vs Martin Damm BUY Jaume Munar 47¢ $2 4d
Libema Open: Jaume Munar vs Martin Damm BUY Jaume Munar 47¢ $2 4d
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 38¢ $26 4d
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 38¢ $38 4d
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +51.9% +37.5% 56% 56% +15.6%
≤30d 55 -35.5% -41.7% 25% 24% -54.9%
≤90d 296 -30.3% -36.9% 30% 29% -30.3%
all 449 +8.3% -2.1% 51% 49% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.1% 49% -7.5%
10% -11.4% 48% -16.4%
15% -20.0% 46% -24.5%
20% -27.8% 44% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $922.18 · official $922.18 (match) · 1665 history records