Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:03:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf8a…2d3c other 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$833 (+22%) realized +$311 · open +$522
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%6W / 21L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day55.8pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$1,720now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$221
sports 48% +$1,197
world 3% −$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +34.3% +21.5% 22% 22% +19.9%
≤30d 27 +34.3% +21.5% 22% 22% +19.9%
≤90d 27 +34.3% +21.5% 22% 22% +19.9%
all 27 +34.3% +21.5% 22% 22% +19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.5% 22% +19.9%
10% ← realistic here +9.9% 22% +8.4%
15% -0.7% 22% -2.1%
20% -10.5% 22% -11.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late +100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$436 vs −$86 · ×5.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1,720
Realized+$311
Unrealized+$522
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses6 / 21
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions13
Markets (closed)27 / 40
History coverage3d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day55.8
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 28¢ $167 $545 +$378 (+226%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $231 $519 +$289 (+125%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 47¢ 69¢ $150 $222 +$72 (+48%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $168 $183 +$15 (+9%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $90 $86 −$4 (-5%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $66 $72 +$6 (+8%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $46 $33 −$13 (-28%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 14¢ 2¢ $98 $16 −$82 (-83%)
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will KT Rolster win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $81 $1 −$79 (-98%)
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$59 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $227 −$227 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $215 +$785 +365%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $60 +$673 +1129%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $41 +$322 +784%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $148 −$144 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $62 −$60 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $30 −$29 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $35 −$34 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $140 −$137 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $61 −$60 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $69 −$67 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $195 +$249 +128%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $66 +$226 +344%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $79 −$77 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $45 −$44 -97%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $130 +$358 +276%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $60 −$58 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $123 −$120 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $173 −$170 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $167 −$163 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $53 −$52 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $91 −$88 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $91 −$88 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 17m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 18m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 18m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 18m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 18m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 18m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 18m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 18m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $93 18m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 19m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 19m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 19m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 19m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 19m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 19m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 19m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 20m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 20m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 20m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 20m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 20m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 21m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 21m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $129 21m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 21m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 22m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 22m
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,720.03 · official $1,724.30 (match) · 194 history records