Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:48:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf89…6816 world 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 541d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate39%30W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$3
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$1
other 19% $0
politics 15% −$1
sports 12% −$12
economics 7% +$1
finance 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.0% -10.4% 29% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 27 +0.5% -9.1% 52% 4% -9.5%
≤90d 71 +0.3% -9.2% 41% 1% -9.5%
all 76 -2.5% -11.8% 39% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 1% -9.8%
10% -20.2% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.9% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

541d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses30 / 46
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)76 / 78
History coverage541d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 83¢ 86¢ $41 $42 +$1 (+3%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $56 −$4 -7%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 21 $35 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 20 $84 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $29 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $24 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $15 +$3 +20%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $79 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $86 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $42 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $134 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $43 −$3 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $31 +$1 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $40 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $40 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $65 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $153 −$1 -1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $45 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 31 $22 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $116 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $43 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 29 $19 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $72 +$2 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $50 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $1 $0 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $56 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $41 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 18 $9 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $4 $0 +7%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $81 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $39 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $73 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $119 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $36 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $86 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $43 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $42 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $77 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $40 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $39 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $42 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $36 $0 +1%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $35 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $71 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $107 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $22 $0 -1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 14 $7 $0 +2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $76 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $41 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 49¢ $20 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $20 12h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $20 16h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $11 16h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 59¢ $22 18h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 59¢ $14 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $34 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $34 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $45 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $45 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $44 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $44 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $29 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $29 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $20 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $4 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $24 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $9 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $33 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $31 8d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $11 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 24¢ $11 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 18¢ $8 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $13 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $25 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $7 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $31 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.51 · official $41.90 (match) · 321 history records