Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:55:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CF 0xcf86…7ad9 other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$84 (+4%) realized +$28 · open +$56
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%13W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$260now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$297
7 days+$368
14 days+$368
30 days+$184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$420
world 17% −$267
crypto 15% −$21
sports 14% +$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+34.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +172.1% +146.1% 80% 80% +98.0%
≤30d 16 +87.0% +69.2% 56% 56% +18.1%
≤90d 25 +48.4% +34.3% 52% 48% -0.1%
all 25 +48.4% +34.3% 52% 48% -0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +34.3% 48% -0.1%
10% +21.4% 44% -9.6%
15% +9.7% 40% -18.4%
20% -1.1% 36% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late +130% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$54 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$260
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$56
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses13 / 12
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions9
Markets (closed)25 / 42
History coverage36d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $70 $72 +$2 (+3%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Under 51¢ 99¢ $25 $49 +$24 (+94%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 88¢ $15 $42 +$27 (+182%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $25 $33 +$8 (+33%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-16%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $91 +$32 +35%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $7 +$22 +299%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$11 +103%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -97%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $30 +$36 +119%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $36 +$59 +165%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $15 +$151 +980%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 Jun 13 $51 +$89 +176%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $26 +$11 +44%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $41 +$70 +172%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $214 −$210 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5 May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 3 Arsenal FC? May 30 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $208 −$203 -97%
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election May 16 $71 −$20 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $163 +$175 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 12 $25 +$2 +7%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $96 +$113 +117%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $47 −$45 -95%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 12 $202 +$28 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $25 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AN BUY $4 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 77¢ $60 3h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 21¢ $29 3h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $21 3h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 4h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 4h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 4h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $15 4h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 4h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes $7 4h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Czechia win on 2026- BUY 29¢ $51 4h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $30 24h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $36 24h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 100¢ $166 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AN BUY 18¢ $10 31h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes $15 31h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? AN BUY 24¢ $9 31h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Will Egyp BUY $15 31h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND BUY 23¢ $20 31h
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY $21 31h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AN BUY 31¢ $51 31h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 48¢ $30 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $26 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 36¢ $51 6d
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer SELL Yes 100¢ $111 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 26¢ $41 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $259.62 · official $346.10 · 104 history records