Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf86…5394 crypto 207 markets active 5d ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$607 (+12%) realized +$607 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%64W / 143L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$153
14 days+$158
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% +$345
crypto 38% −$519
other 23% +$333
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-30.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -31.4% -38.0% 40% 20% +47.4%
≤30d 73 -32.0% -38.5% 32% 27% -13.6%
≤90d 134 -35.2% -41.4% 28% 26% -17.5%
all 207 -22.6% -30.0% 31% 29% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.0% 29% -6.2%
10% -36.7% 28% -15.1%
15% -42.8% 25% -23.3%
20% -48.4% 23% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$14 · ×2.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$607
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses64 / 143
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)207 / 207
History coverage100d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 207 Trades
no open positions (115 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Taro Daniel Jun 12 $120 +$160 +133%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $21 −$2 -12%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -98%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 11 $105 +$10 +10%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 04 $35 −$35 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $101 +$40 +40%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $34 +$1 +2%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $3 +$6 +180%
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-2.5) vs Svajda (+2.5) Jun 01 $6 +$6 +97%
Set Handicap: Potapova (-1.5) vs Kalinskaya (+1.5) Jun 01 $7 +$5 +64%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Zachary Svajda: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $6 +$7 +105%
Anastasia Potapova vs. Anna Kalinskaya: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $6 +$8 +134%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $3 −$3 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $60 −$37 -62%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann May 31 $4 −$4 -97%
Will a team from France be the 2026 Champions League winner? May 30 $45 +$36 +79%
Roland Garros WTA: Peyton Stearns vs Belinda Bencic May 29 $2 −$2 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $11 +$36 +344%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Tamara Korpatsch May 29 $8 −$7 -97%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $14 −$1 -5%
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 29 $7 −$2 -27%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Marie Bouzkova May 29 $4 −$3 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Matteo Berrettini May 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton May 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Madison Keys May 28 $4 −$3 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Mayar Sherif May 28 $3 −$3 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Claire Liu May 28 $2 −$2 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elsa Jacquemot May 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame May 28 $11 +$30 +262%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Alina Korneeva May 28 $17 −$17 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Kimberly Birrell May 28 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 28 $21 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 28 $28 −$16 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 28 $27 −$17 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 28 $28 +$8 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 28 $26 −$16 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 28 $27 +$15 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 28 $21 −$5 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 28 $28 −$11 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 28 $25 −$14 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 28 $30 −$19 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 28 $19 −$14 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 28 $26 −$16 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 28 $25 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 28 $29 +$9 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 28 $27 +$17 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 28 $28 −$17 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 28 $27 +$10 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 28 $27 −$16 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Taro Daniel SELL Taro Daniel 95¢ $280 5d
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Taro Daniel BUY Taro Daniel 40¢ $79 5d
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Taro Daniel BUY Taro Daniel 40¢ $38 5d
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Taro Daniel BUY Taro Daniel 38¢ $1 5d
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Taro Daniel BUY Taro Daniel 38¢ $1 5d
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Taro Daniel BUY Taro Daniel 38¢ $1 5d
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios SELL Sho Shimabukuro 99¢ $41 6d
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 6¢ $3 6d
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Sho Shimabukuro 43¢ $18 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 6d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 6d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $115 6d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Jakub Mensik 24¢ $35 13d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $105 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi SELL Matteo Arnaldi 100¢ $140 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Matteo Arnaldi 71¢ $101 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi SELL Matteo Arnaldi 66¢ $10 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Matteo Arnaldi 51¢ $8 16d
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya SELL Anna Kalinskaya 100¢ $9 16d
Set Handicap: Potapova (-1.5) vs Kalinskaya (+1.5) SELL Kalinskaya 100¢ $12 16d
Flavio Cobolli vs. Zachary Svajda: Total Sets O/U 3.5 SELL Over 3.5 100¢ $13 16d
Anastasia Potapova vs. Anna Kalinskaya: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2.5 100¢ $14 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi SELL Matteo Arnaldi 49¢ $25 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Matteo Arnaldi 50¢ $26 16d
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Anna Kalinskaya 35¢ $3 16d
Anastasia Potapova vs. Anna Kalinskaya: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 42¢ $6 16d
Set Handicap: Potapova (-1.5) vs Kalinskaya (+1.5) BUY Kalinskaya 60¢ $7 16d
Flavio Cobolli vs. Zachary Svajda: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 48¢ $6 16d
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-2.5) vs Svajda (+2.5) BUY Svajda 50¢ $6 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda BUY Zachary Svajda 15¢ $3 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 827 history records