Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:32:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
CF 0xcf81…c7ec other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$120 (+5%) realized +$106 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate76%13W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit16%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$178
7 days−$119
14 days−$119
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$82
sports 16% −$187
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -16.9% -24.8% 76% 29% -14.0%
≤30d 17 -16.9% -24.8% 76% 29% -14.0%
≤90d 17 -16.9% -24.8% 76% 29% -14.0%
all 17 -16.9% -24.8% 76% 29% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.8% 29% -14.0%
10% -32.0% 6% -22.2%
15% -38.6% 0% -29.7%
20% -44.6% 0% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$77 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized+$106
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses13 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)17 / 19
History coverage8d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 79¢ 94¢ $60 $71 +$11 (+18%)
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? No 67¢ 88¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $201 −$200 -100%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $242 +$11 +4%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $230 +$10 +4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $201 +$34 +17%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $160 +$18 +11%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 23 $100 +$2 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $246 +$23 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $202 +$48 +24%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 21 $51 +$2 +3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $197 +$10 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 21 $187 +$11 +6%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Jun 20 $179 +$7 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 88¢ $151 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $111 4h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 79¢ $30 22h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 79¢ $30 22h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $211 39h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $1 40h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $40 40h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $192 44h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $50 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $240 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 96¢ $230 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $85 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $201 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $150 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 3d
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 98¢ $100 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $269 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $45 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $201 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 84¢ $249 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 54¢ $53 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 50¢ $20 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 50¢ $10 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 50¢ $10 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.08 · official $83.08 (match) · 45 history records