Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:07:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf7a…4bb1 world 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 487d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate36%32W / 56L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$1
politics 17% −$1
other 16% −$2
sports 13% +$9
economics 5% $0
finance 3% +$1
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -4.1% -13.2% 33% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 26 +1.3% -8.3% 35% 8% -9.5%
≤90d 71 -0.3% -9.8% 28% 4% -9.5%
all 88 -0.5% -10.0% 36% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 5% -9.5%
10% -18.6% 3% -18.1%
15% -26.4% 3% -26.1%
20% -33.7% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

487d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses32 / 56
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)88 / 89
History coverage487d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $27 −$1 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $23 −$4 -16%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $70 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $43 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $94 +$4 +5%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $2 $0 -22%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $101 −$1 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $102 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $52 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $102 −$1 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $149 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $49 −$3 -7%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $101 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $49 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $99 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $45 +$5 +12%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $25 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 27 $43 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $64 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 24 $3 $0 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $44 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $39 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $45 +$1 +3%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $20 $0 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 18 $44 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $42 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $19 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $41 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $84 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $101 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $50 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $95 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $41 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $46 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $4 $0 -2%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $4 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $41 $0 -0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $79 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $47 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $26 14h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $21 17h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $6 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $5 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $15 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $23 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $47 33h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $47 35h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $10 45h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $33 45h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $43 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $29 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $2 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $31 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $23 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $23 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $51 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $51 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $8 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $39 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $45 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $50 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $50 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $3 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $3 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $50 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $51 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.09 · official $47.16 (match) · 334 history records