Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:25:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CF
0xcf78…5fa4
crypto · 1269 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$58 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$58 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses1087 / 182
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1269 / 1269
History coverage70d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day34.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 0 History 1269 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Up 87¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 08 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 86% −$56
other 14% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 258 +6.9% -3.3% 80% 55% -11.7%
≤30d 259 +6.5% -3.7% 80% 55% -11.7%
≤90d 1269 +0.9% -8.7% 86% 16% -11.4%
all 1269 +0.9% -8.7% 86% 16% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover34.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 16% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 8% -19.9%
15% -25.4% 3% -27.6%
20% -32.7% 1% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records