Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:48:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf75…099f sports 238 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized −$3 · open +$21
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%104W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day34.8pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1,104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75
7 days−$4
14 days−$27
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$255
other 20% +$101
world 20% +$97
politics 6% +$29
tech 3% +$38
crypto 0% −$9
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 144 +4.8% -5.2% 56% 54% -9.6%
≤30d 190 +2.1% -7.6% 55% 54% -10.2%
≤90d 190 +2.1% -7.6% 55% 54% -10.2%
all 190 +2.1% -7.6% 55% 54% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 54% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.4% 46% -18.8%
15% -24.5% 38% -26.6%
20% -31.9% 32% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$12 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$1,104
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses104 / 86
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions48
Markets (closed)190 / 238
History coverage9d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day34.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 48 History 190 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 85¢ 99¢ $132 $154 +$21 (+16%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 89¢ 88¢ $96 $95 −$1 (-1%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 77¢ 90¢ $61 $71 +$10 (+17%)
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? No 82¢ 90¢ $57 $63 +$6 (+10%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $53 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 86¢ $42 $50 +$8 (+19%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 83¢ 89¢ $46 $50 +$3 (+7%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 87¢ 96¢ $41 $45 +$4 (+10%)
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 89¢ 92¢ $39 $41 +$2 (+4%)
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? No 57¢ 66¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+17%)
Will Trump praise Lionel Messi by June 30? No 67¢ 74¢ $31 $35 +$4 (+11%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 50¢ 67¢ $22 $29 +$8 (+35%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 47¢ $34 $28 −$6 (-18%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 95¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+9%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 93¢ $17 $19 +$1 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 80¢ 81¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+2%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 67¢ 66¢ $17 $16 −$0 (-3%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 94¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+50%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 76¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+8%)
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 96¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+21%)
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 98¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+16%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 68¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 70¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-11%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 73¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+9%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 72¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $11 +$21 +190%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12 +$1 +11%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 17 $43 +$31 +73%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $18 +$8 +45%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $17 +$7 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 +$7 +48%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $63 +$7 +11%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $21 +$5 +21%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $30 +$15 +52%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 15 $17 −$17 -98%
Set Handicap: Bu (-1.5) vs Virtanen (+1.5) Jun 15 $18 −$1 -5%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $57 +$10 +17%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $36 +$34 +93%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $16 +$4 +26%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $8 +$10 +117%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $18 +$6 +34%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 14 $17 +$6 +32%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $27 +$8 +29%
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 14 $305 −$10 -3%
Nottingham Open: Iva Jovic vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $117 −$116 -99%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
Set 1 Winner: Paul vs Munar Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Jun 14 $12 $0 -2%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $8 +$8 +113%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $7 +$9 +119%
Nikola Bartunkova vs. Coco Gauff: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $9 $0 -3%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $61 +$8 +12%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $45 +$25 +55%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $65 +$6 +10%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$3 +17%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$15 +291%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $7 +$8 +105%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $5 +$5 +90%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $17 −$11 -68%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $13 +$11 +90%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $8 +$10 +140%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 +$7 +134%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $108 +$31 +28%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $42 +$7 +17%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $14 −$13 -99%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 13 $73 −$4 -5%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $50 −$41 -81%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $32 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Los Angeles Sparks 22¢ $4 1h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL No 82¢ $74 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 78¢ $27 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 54¢ $18 14h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $11 15h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 47¢ $9 35h
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu BUY Yes 52¢ $5 35h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 57¢ $31 35h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $9 35h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 31¢ $17 35h
Set Handicap: Bu (-1.5) vs Virtanen (+1.5) SELL Bu 49¢ $17 35h
Set Handicap: Bu (-1.5) vs Virtanen (+1.5) BUY Bu 50¢ $18 35h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 65¢ $30 35h
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez BUY Carlos Maria Zarate 69¢ $11 35h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 35h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 82¢ $21 35h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 99¢ $23 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 83¢ $24 2d
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Darja Semenistaja BUY Darja Semenistaja 51¢ $305 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $36 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $117 2d
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? BUY No 82¢ $57 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 86¢ $57 2d
Nottingham Open: Iva Jovic vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Karolina Pliskova 50¢ $10 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja BUY Sinja Kraus 50¢ $12 2d
Set 1 Winner: Paul vs Munar BUY Munar 50¢ $10 2d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Katie Volynets 47¢ $8 2d
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $6 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,103.56 · official $1,103.57 (match) · 433 history records