Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:55:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CF 0xcf74…8865 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 43d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$92 · open +$90
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$602now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 43d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$185
crypto 24% −$188
sports 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +93.2% +74.8% 100% 100% +74.8%
≤30d 2 +95.1% +76.6% 100% 100% +76.0%
≤90d 4 -2.4% -11.7% 50% 50% -39.5%
all 4 -2.4% -11.7% 50% 50% -39.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 50% -39.5%
10% -20.2% 50% -45.3%
15% -27.9% 50% -50.5%
20% -35.0% 50% -55.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$94 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$602
Realized−$92
Unrealized+$90
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage43d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $450 $518 +$68 (+15%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 22¢ $36 $59 +$23 (+65%)
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 45¢ 42¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $65 +$61 +93%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $33 +$32 +97%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 May 4-10? May 08 $40 −$38 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 4-10? May 08 $159 −$150 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 45¢ $26 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $65 2d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $37 9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $462 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $33 9d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 May 4-10? BUY Yes 7¢ $40 42d
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 4-10? BUY Yes 13¢ $159 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $601.95 · official $601.37 (match) · 19 history records